Suppose you estimate the following model of residuals from an autoregressive model:
εt2 = 0.25 + 0.6ε2t-1 + μt, where ε = ε^
If the residual at time t is 0.9, the forecasted variance for time t+1 is:
The variance at t=t+1 is 0.25 + [0.60 (0.81)] = 0.25 + 0.486 = 0.736.
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