Session 4: Economics: Economics for Valuation Reading 19: Foreign Exchange Parity Relations
LOS h: Calculate the end-of-period exchange rate implied by purchasing power parity, given the beginning-of-period exchange rate and the inflation rates.
Kathy Smith, CFA, is an analyst with the Borderless Fund and is doing research on the country of Kenya for her colleague, John Dolan. Smith wants to calculate the inflation rate implied in the forward rates that she obtains from her bank, Global Bank. The current spot exchange rate is 90.772 Kenyan Shillings (KS) for one euro (EUR). The one-year forward rate for the Kenyan Shilling is 95.7686 KS/EUR. The current rate of inflation the European Economic Community is 9%. Smith does not know the current inflation rate for Kenya. Assuming relative purchasing power parity (PPP) applies, the calculated expected inflation rate implied in the forward rate is:
Solve for the expected inflation rate for Kenya implied in the forward rate (iK) by using the same formula for relative PPP:
S1 = S0 × [(1 + iFC) / (1 + iDC)] S1 = KS95.7686 = KS90.772 × [(1 + iK) / (1 + 0.09)] iK = 15%
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