Reading 19: Foreign Exchange Parity Relations-LOS i习题精选

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Session 4: Economics: Economics for Valuation
Reading 19: Foreign Exchange Parity Relations

LOS i: Define and discuss the international Fisher relation.

George Canyon, CFA, an international trader and analyst with Canyon Trading, wants to use the international Fisher relation to determine his trading strategies. In analyzing expected inflation rates, he wants to correlate the expected rates to nominal interest rates. In doing so, he discovers that the international Fisher relation could approximate nominal interest rates by:

A)	multiplying real interest rates by expected inflation rates.

B)	subtracting real interest rates from expected inflation rates.

C)	adding real interest rates to expected inflation rates.

The nominal interest rate, r, is the compounded sum of the real interest rate, real r, and the expected rate of inflation, E(i), over an estimation horizon. The domestic version of the Fisher relation is stated as:

Exact methodology: (1 + r) = (1 + real r) × (1 + E(i))

    Where:
    r = nominal interest rate
    real r = real interest rate
    E(i) = expected inflation

Note that for the exact methodology, 1 must be added to each rate before they are multiplied.
The relationship can also be approximated by adding real interest rates to expected inflation rates: linear approximation: r = real r + E(i)

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发表于 2010-4-14 11:06 | 只看该作者

George Canyon, CFA, an international trader and analyst with Canyon Peak Trading, is considering trading in the Chinese yuan. Canyon is considering the use of the international Fisher relation in his analysis of China. One concern that Canyon should consider is that the international Fisher relation assumes that:

A)	nominal interest rates are stable across time and international borders.

B)	real interest rates are stable across time and international borders.

C)	real exchange rates are stable across time and international borders.

The international Fisher relation specifies that the interest rate differential between two countries should be equal to the expected inflation differential. This means countries with higher expected inflation will have higher nominal interest rates. The condition assumes that real interest rates are stable over time and equal across international borders.

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发表于 2010-4-14 11:06 | 只看该作者

Simon Peak, CFA, an international trader and economist with Canyon Peak Trading, is analyzing the inflation and interest rates trends for China. Peak is interested in taking a trading position in interest rate sensitive instruments. If Peak is to assume that the differences in inflation rates are substantially similar to the differences in interest rates, which theory does he prescribe to?

A)	Relative purchasing power parity.

B)	International Fisher relation.

C)	Asset markets approach.

The international Fisher relation specifies that the interest rate differential between two countries should be equal to the expected inflation differential. This means countries with higher expected inflation will have higher nominal interest rates.

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发表于 2010-4-14 11:07 | 只看该作者

Donna Ackerman, CFA, is an analyst in the currency trading department at State Bank. Ackerman is training a new hire, Fred Bos, a recent college graduate with a BA in economics.

Ackerman asks Bos to attempt to estimate the inflation rate in the U.S. based on the following data:

the spot exchange rate between the GBP and the USD is $0.500.
the forward exchange rate is $0.520.
the British rate of inflation is 4%.

Bos calculates the rate of U.S. inflation as:

0%.

8.2%.

4.2%.

According to the Interest Rate Parity, Purchasing Power Parity, and the International Fisher Relationship, the interest rate differential must equal the inflation differential, and we assume that the forward rate is an unbiased estimator of the future spot rate.

1 + US inflation = (0.520 / 0.500)(1.04) = 1.082, thus US inflation = 8.2%.

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