Session 4: Economics for Valuation Reading 17: The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments
LOS b: Explain the factors that influence supply and demand in the foreign exchange market.
Pauline Zeiss, CFA, is preparing a report on the investment climate in the country of Andalmosa. She has assembled the following data:
- The Andalmosan central bank’s actions have an indirect effect on exchange rates.
- Andalmosan currency is likely to depreciate.
- Andalmosan interest rates are low.
Given the information presented above, what conclusions can Zeiss draw about the Andalmosan government’s policies regarding currency supplies and exchange rates?
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Currency supply |
Exchange rate policy |
When a country adopts a flexible exchange-rate policy, the central bank doesn’t manipulate exchange rates, although its actions can affect exchange rates indirectly. Given the expectations that the currency will depreciate, this suggests that the currency supply must be too high. Low in country interest rates are likely to increase the supply of the currency on foreign exchange markets as investors seek higher returns elsewhere. |