Question 1: Is there an arbitrage opportunity?
If the result of the following formula (derived from rearranging the interest rate parity condition) is not equal to 0, there is an arbitrage opportunity.
(1 + rdomestic) ? [((1 + rforeign) × ForwardFCC)) / SpotFCC] = ?
Here, ( 1 + 0.10 ) ? [ (( 1 + 0.12 ) × 2.0FCC ) / 1.9FCC ] = ( 1.10 ? 1.18 ) = -0.08, which is not equal to 0. Arbitrage opportunities exist.
Question 2: Borrow Domestic (local) or Foreign? Here are some "rules" regarding where to start the arbitrage (where to borrow). These rules only work if there are no transaction costs and only if the currency is quoted in FCC terms.
Rule 1: If the sign on the result of question 1 is negative, borrow domestic. If the sign is positive, borrow foreign. Here, the sign is negative, so borrow domestic.
Rule 2: See table below.
(rd ? rf) < (Forward ? Spot) / Spot |
Borrow Domestic |
(rd ? rf) > (Forward ? Spot) / Spot |
Borrow Foreign |
Here, borrow domestic.
(rd ? rf) |
|
(Forward - Spot) / Spot |
( 0.10 ? 0.12 ) |
|
( 2.0FCC ? 1.9FCC ) / 1.9FCC |
-0.02 |
< |
0.05 |
Summary: To take advantage of arbitrage
opportunities, borrow domestic and lend foreign.