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发表于 2011-6-14 08:00
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Lender Roundtable: Outlook on Debt Markets
Published: April 26, 2007 in Knowledge@Wharton
In March, members of the Wharton Private Equity Club coordinated a roundtable discussion between four influential lenders to talk about the currently robust debt markets, trends in the sub-debt markets, the impact of hedge funds, and ways firms can differentiate themselves from the competition, among other topics.
Jerome Egan (WG'01) is a senior vice president at TCW/Crescent Mezzanine, a Los Angeles-based mezzanine provider with approximately $4.7 billion of capital under management. TCW typically invests in senior subordinated notes with equity upside (obtained through warrants or equity co-investments) in connection with sponsored LBO transactions. Its typical investment size is approximately $80 million, but it can commit up to $400 million for any given transaction. TCW invests across industries.
Jeff Foley (WG' 99) is a director in Wachovia Securities' Leveraged Finance Group, a leading provider of leveraged finance solutions, including senior debt, second lien, mezzanine, and high yield products serving both financial sponsors and traditional large and middle market corporate clients.
J. Gardner Horan is a senior vice president in GE Commercial Finance's Global Media & Communications Group. With over $7 billion in assets under management, GE's Global Media & Communications Group offers a wide range of financing solutions to middle market and large cap media, communications and entertainment companies ranging from $20 million to over $1 billion. These include senior secured debt, mezzanine and high yield, second lien, and equity co-investments.
Jeff Kilrea serves as the co-president of CapitalSource, Inc. CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE) offers a wide range of financing solutions, including senior term loans (first and second lien), asset-based revolvers, mezzanine financing, and equity co-investments. CapitalSource targets middle-market companies that generate EBITDA between $5 million and $35 million on an annual basis. It can arrange transactions up to $200 million.
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Lender Roundtable: Outlook on Debt Markets
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WPEC: In your opinion, what are the primary factors that have led to today's robust debt markets?
JK: The robust debt markets are being driven, in my opinion, by one primary factor: market liquidity. There is a glut of capital in the market today from CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations), BDCs (Business Development Corporations), Hedge Funds, new Commercial Finance companies and Regional Banks, not to mention significant capital from PEGs (Private Equity Groups) anxious to deploy capital as they seek their next round of fund raising. From a debt perspective, some of these new or alternative sources of capital did not even exist 5 to 10 years ago. From an equity perspective, the opportunity for higher returns generated by PEGs has increased the dollars committed to this sector from endowments, pension funds and other investors, which also has contributed to the debt markets.
JE: I think today's debt markets have been largely driven by the interest rate environment as well as the enormous amounts of capital that have been raised by buyout firms. Just as equity sponsors have pushed the envelope on purchase price multiples, so have lenders done with leverage and the pricing on that leverage. In our space and with the investment sizes we deal with, the high yield market is our primary competitor. Spreads are tighter now than ever, making mezzanine a less competitive option. However, many sponsors still prefer large "private high yield" issues because mezzanine providers can be more flexible on call protection and other features, making it a more flexible security from the sponsor's point of view.
GH: Low default rates have been a key factor. I don't have the exact numbers on hand, but I believe they are approaching 45-year lows. This has kept losses off of the books, which has made it easier for institutional investors to raise money. This, in turn, has increased liquidity and pushed yields down. Companies are less likely to default with lower rates. It's a cycle.
JF: The primary factor driving the robust market conditions, particularly in the leveraged loan market, is the market liquidity from the continued fund raising by CLOs and other institutional investors. Despite record M&A activity, the demand for new paper continues to outstrip supply, resulting in favorable pricing and structures from an issuer perspective. As previously mentioned, low default rates are another important factor driving the current environment.
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[More results for: institutional investors] WPEC: The question on everybody's mind -- how long are the good times going to last? What external factors do you believe will lead to an eventual softening?
GH: We think the debt markets will start to tighten towards the end of this year or the beginning of 2008. Eventually housing and manufacturing weakness will take its toll on the economy and filter down to the credit markets. However, several factors such as covenant-lite deals could delay this tightening. As always, industry specific issues will also come into play. For instance, in the media space, advertising dollars from the 2008 presidential election may offset weakness in the broader advertising markets.
JK: It is difficult to predict how long the good times will last, but some type of underlying market correction will be necessary to curb the current enthusiasm. The correction could come in the form of an increase in the interest rate environment, which will impact debt service capabilities and debt leverage of borrowers interested in making acquisitions. The correction could also result from material credit agreement defaults by borrowers in the credit markets, which should lead certain lenders, either temporarily or permanently, to exit the business. Many of the new competitors have not experienced the inevitable cycling of the credit markets so it will be interesting to witness their behavior in a challenging credit market.
JE: If or when the defaults start to occur, then we'll see discipline re-enter the market. There are also many questions regarding what rights holders of second lien paper will have in a default. I also believe that if or when default rates increase, buyout firms will realize that their capital structures are made up largely of hedge funds with a "loan-to-own" mentality. |
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