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- 2011-7-2
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3#
发表于 2011-7-13 14:51
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CP, not sure if I agree with you fully there. Anchoring is more you are set on your original forecast. So even if new info comes to light, like a positive earnings surprise, you don't take that info in fully and sort of lock into your original forecast. for positive earnings surprises, this would tend to lead to still an upward movement then on the name as you are more or less sandbagging your forecast and being overly conservative b/c that was your original anchor. You would tend to see positive earnings surprises then followed by positive stock movement as that information slowly gets incorporated in. With representativeness, it's more like what you said above. People use their past experiences to make a biased opinion, can buy up a stock, and perhaps take it further than where it should logically be. So the 2 are different in driving a price up. Anchoring is more the slow play of the stock up as you slowly start to notch your forecast up as the good info comes out, where as representativeness is more you think the stock is a winner because it has been or you think it will be going forward, so you keep pushing it up.
neither strategy is "right", just psychological reasons perhaps that a positive earnings surprise could lead to further upward movement and/or why some stocks that have been winners are also pushed up, perhaps past a logical valuation point... making these overpriced winners eventually proned towards underperformance as valuations come back in line. |
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