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发表于 2012-3-28 09:44
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David Kirk, CFA, is an analyst on the global equities desk for a large investment banking company in New York. Kirk is searching for investment opportunities in companies that operate in relatively economically undeveloped countries. He is currently researching possible investments in businesses located in Wayland, a small emerging country located in Eastern Europe. Wayland has significant coal deposits within its borders, and is a leading producer in the region. Kirk’s interest in the country stems from the fact that Wayland has recently emerged an as independent nation after centuries of rule by a larger country. Wayland is in the early stages of government formation, although many of its elected leaders are experienced, having served under the previous government.
Kirk is not a risk-averse investor, but realizes that opportunities in Wayland may have some unique features. For example, the government of Wayland is considering putting some type of trade restrictions in place to protect the country’s leading industry, the production of coal. Government officials want to ensure that the industry, which is quasi-governmental, is shielded from lower cost importers from surrounding countries. At the same time, the government wants to encourage growth and development in other industries so that in the future, the country’s economy is not dependent upon one industry. Kirk wants to explore the short- and long-term implications of any trade restrictions the government may enact.
Also, Kirk plans on performing a thorough analysis of the government of Wayland’s anticipated approach toward monetary policy. With an expected increase in international trade, the country’s central bank must more carefully manage the country’s balance of payments accounts. The current exchange rate for W$, the national currency of Wayland, is W$125/€. Exactly one year ago, the same exchange rate was W$115/€. In addition, over the same time period, real interest rates in Wayland have declined relative to comparable interest rates in the European Union. Kirk will project the expected returns on an investment in a Wayland-based company, based upon several likely interest rate and exchange rate scenarios.The government of Wayland argues that its policy of placing trade restrictions on the import of coal into the country will serve to protect the entire country by providing both job security and lower fuel prices to its citizens. Which of the following statements regarding Wayland’s policy is most accurate? A)
| The effect of the trade restrictions cannot be predicted, but will encourage growth in other industries that do not have the same governmental protection. |
| B)
| The trade restrictions will protect Wayland’s core industry, which in turn will lead to growth in the country’s per capita income. |
| C)
| The trade restrictions will be to the benefit of the coal producers at the expense of the entire country’s economy and its citizens. |
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In general, economists agree that trade restrictions are to the benefit of the protected industry at the expense of the rest of the general economy and the citizens. (Study Session 4, LOS 16.c)
Assume that Wayland has a comparative advantage in the production of coal, while Country X has a comparative advantage in the production of paper goods. Which of the following statements regarding the law of comparative advantage is most accurate? A)
| Wayland should impose a quota on the import of coal and Country X should impose a similar quota on the import of paper goods in order to preserve their respective comparative advantages. |
| B)
| When each country specializes in the good for which they have the comparative advantage and trades with the other, both countries will benefit from the alliance. |
| C)
| Wayland should impose a tariff on the import of coal and Country X should impose a similar tariff on the import of paper goods in order to preserve their respective comparative advantages. |
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The law of comparative advantage holds that trading partners are better off if they specialize in the production of those goods for which they are the low-opportunity cost producers. In this example, Wayland and Country X should each specialize in the production of their respective specialized goods and then trade with each other, resulting in an arrangement that is beneficial to both sides. (Study Session 4, LOS 16.a)
Recent financial information released by the government of Wayland for the year ending 2006 includes the following information (in millions of W$):Current account | W$ 550,000 | Capital account | −285,000 |
Calculate the official reserve account (in millions of W$) for Wayland as of the end of 2006:
The Balance of Payments equation is: Current account + capital account + official reserve account = 0
Therefore, solving for the official reserve account, W$550,000 + (−285,000) − 0 = W$−265,000. (Study Session 4, LOS 18.b)
With regard to the performance of Wayland’s currency over the past year, which of the following statements is most accurate? The W$ has: A)
| depreciated relative to the Euro, in part due to the decline in Wayland’s real interest rates relative to the EU. |
| B)
| appreciated relative to the Euro, in part due to the decline in Wayland’s real interest rates relative to the EU. |
| C)
| depreciated relative to the Euro, in part due to investor expectations that trade restrictions will soon be enacted by Wayland’s government. |
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The real interest rates in Wayland have declined over the past year relative to rates in the EU, so investors will find Euro-denominated investments more attractive than W$-denominated investments. As a result, the W$ has depreciated in value relative to the Euro as demand for investments in the W$ currency have decreased. (Study Session 4, LOS 18.d)
Assume that Wayland's central bank states that its goal is to maintain the long-term W$ exchange rate relative to the Euro at W$110/€. Which of the following statements regarding the possible strategies that the central bank of Wayland can pursue is most correct? The bank is signaling a: A)
| crawling peg policy which will help to reduce foreign exchange risk for importers and exporters. |
| B)
| fixed rate policy that will be periodically reset to avoid having the bank either run out of reserves or accumulate too many reserves of foreign currency. |
| C)
| fixed rate policy, but the effectiveness of the policy will hinge on the adequacy of the central bank's reserves. |
|
The central bank is signaling a commitment to a fixed rate policy. The policy is sustainable only if the bank has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to support the value of the W$. If not, the typical scenario is that attempts to support the currency (maintain the fixed rate) will exhaust the bank's reserves, leading to a currency devaluation in the long-run. (Study Session 4, LOS 18.f)
The current spot rate for the US dollar per Euro is US$1.42/€. Calculate the current cross rate for W$ per US$.
In Wayland, the direct exchange rate is:(W$125/€) / (US$1.42/€) = W$88.03/US$
(Study Session 4, LOS 17.a) |
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