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- 2008-11-18
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- 2008-11-24
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[20081118]Telecom Services - "Qualcomm gave up UMB for LTE; Good, not b
Events:
Qualcomm announced that it will stop research on UMB (previously regarded as the 4G evolution for CDMA), to focus on LTE.
Our Comments:
Counter-intuitively, we believe this is good news for current CDMA operators, and not bad news at all.
1) Verizon, KDDI, SKT as well as CT have all already announced that they will adopt LTE, not UMB, as their 4G standard.
2) All 4G standards are based on OFMA, meaning that no 3G standards can smoothly/cheaply migrate to 4G, as CDMA will migrate to CDMA2000. This means that CDMA2000 will not be at a significant disadvantage in evolving to 4G. Moreover, vendors, chipset makers and software makers will all try to provide "multi-mode" platforms. For example, Huawei has already presented CDMA/LTE dual-mode base stations. Qualcomm's new commitment to LTE is likely to make the migration from CDMA2000 to LTE smoother.
3) We believe 4G is still at least 5 years away, giving enough time for CDMA2000 to be upgraded and provide returns (as the time and capex needed to upgrade CDMA to CDMA2000 is quite low).
As TDD-LTE is a natural evolution from TD-SCDMA (and China owns some of the IPR in TDD-LTE), it is very likely to be licensed as the only 4G standard in China.
[attach]9401[/attach]
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发表于 2008-11-18 09:45
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