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- 2013-8-20
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4#
发表于 2013-4-20 06:45
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I expressed myself horribly . I should have said the following:
Availability bias is a cognitive error , information processing bias. People weight the probabilities of outcomes depending on 1. How quickly they can retrieve information from memory i.e. retrievability. 2. How efficiently they can search for the category of the event , or how accurate the search set is . 3. what their range of experience with similar situations has been. 4. How well the event resonates with something they already know .
In any case it is a probability weighting process i.e. some sort of statistical judgement . Here there is no talk of weighing probabilities . If the q was talking about availability bias , it could have been worded as “Gerber considered various alternatives that came to his mind about past situations , and then concluded that the research setbacks would not affect the stocik prices . Company XYZ that he recalled , had recently announced setbacks in Phase 3 trials , but went on to have a good year after , so ABC would likewise not suffer “
i.e. the wording would indicate a bias clearly , but would show the bias to be an easily correctable one , if Gerber had known better . such as XYZ had other reasons to shine and ABC was the pits. I mean separate the type of cognitive error . Gerber is merely trying to perpetutate his belief but not quoting any numbers or situations , he is just sticking to his guns . Conservatism . |
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