[20081121]CITICS*Thematic Research*CITICS-Thematic Research on Infrastructure

Construction of expressways will see another wave and the mileage will reach over 80,000 kilometers in 2010 from the 53,900 kilometers in 2007. A total of 27,000 kilometers of expressways will be built over next three years with the annual mileage at approximately 9,000 kilometers and nearly twice the annual incremental mileage since the wave of road construction starting from 1998. The annual mileage of expressways building during 1998-2007 came in at 4,900 kilometers. 
The development of national expressway network will be accelerated and the scale of construction over next three years will beat what had been expected by one time. The 85,000 km national expressway to be built under the Plan of National Expressway Network will be accomplished by 2010 and 46,000 km were built by 2007. The original plan aimed at 50,000~55,000 km by 2010 while the latest plan aims at striving to accomplish 68,000 km by 2010 so that 22,000 km new roads will be built in the next three years, almost twice of the original plan, far exceeding the expectation.
The 85,000 km under the plan of national expressway network might be accomplished by the end of 2013.  19,000 km of expressway will be built during 2011-2013, 7 years ahead of schedule, which results in the new wave of expressway construction.
Construction of provincial expressways will be the sustained driver behind the expressway building wave. In 2007, 8,100 km of provincial expressway had been built, accounting for only 15% of the 53,900 km mileage planned to be built. On rough estimation, over the next three years, 5,000 km of provincial expressway will be built and the accumulated mileage built will amount to 13,000 km. According to the provincial highway planning statistics, the mileage of provincial expressway network will reach 59,000 km by 2020 and there will be another 46,000 km expressway to be built after 2010, which will be the focus of expressway construction in future.
We predict that RMB900 billion will be put in highway infrastructure construction in the next three years, approximately 150% of the originally planned investment amount. In order to maintain domestic demand, the investment in transport infrastructure will be increased and according to what the government has envisaged, over next five years, RMB5 trillion will be invested into highway building.  We think the total investment into highway construction will be about RMB4.8 trillion during 2009-2013 in which it is estimated that RMB850 billion, 900 billion and 950 billion will be invested in 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively, approximately 150% of the originally planned investment amount. The ratios of investment into expressways, national and provincial trunk highway and rural roads will come in at 3: 1: 1.
There are uncertainties over investment into highway construction. As there is huge financing demand, difficulties to seek financing may hinder the progress of highway construction.