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[CFA入门] 请教Level 1 Book 4 Page 233的例题

A Corp. shares are curently trading at $32/share and are expected to pay adividend of $0.96 over the coming year. An analyst has estimated that next year's earings will be $3 and that the year-end P/E will be 12. Should an investor with a required rate of return of 14.5% purchase A shares based on this  analysis?

 

Answer: 

 

Based on the estimated earings (E1) OF $3 and the estimated P/E of 12, the year-end price is forecast to be 3*12=36 and the total return will be : (36-2+0.96)/32=15.5%, 15.5/%>14.5%, so should purchase.

 

书上只是介绍(P/E)1=(D1/E1)(k-g),在这里不知道怎么体现出来的.

不太理解这个解答的过程.请知道的解释一下可以吗?多谢啦!!!

顶一下,请问有人知道吗?谢谢啦!!

TOP

这位仁兄,你想的太过于复杂了,毫无疑问答案是正确的。如果我们要买SHARE,那我们就要比较expected rate of return 和 required rate of return.如果expected>required,这说明这个share被underestimate,我们应该买进。否则我们就不该考虑这个share.expected rate of return=(P1-P0+dividend)/P0.现在我们知道D=0.96,P0=32。所以我们现在只需要求p1.题目已经告诉我们p/E=12.E=3,所以很容易算出P1=36。最后Expected=15.5%.而你所说的P/E)1=(D1/E1)(k-g)缺少条件,因为你不知道g. 而且这里的k就是题目中的required rate of return。而你要求的是expected rate of return 。所以你可能混淆了expected rate of return 和 required rate of return。

TOP

这里算的其实就是HPR (holding period return), 就是return from asset appreciation plus divident yield。不需要用到price multiple的公式。

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