An investor can invest in Tunisian dinar at r = 6.25% or in Swiss francs at r = 5.15%. She is a resident of Tunisia and the current spot rate is 0.8105 TND/SF. What is the approximate one-year forward rate expressed in TND/SF?
The approximate forward premium/discount is given by the interest rate differential. This differential is: 6.25% ? 5.15% = 1.10%. Since Tunisia has higher interest rates, its currency will be at a discount in the forward market. This discount equals: 0.011 × 0.8105 = 0.0089. Since the exchange rate is quoted in TND/SF, as a depreciating currency, it will take more TND to buy one SF. The forward rate is thus: 0.8105 + 0.0089 = 0.8194 TND/SF. In other words, the SF is stronger in the forward market. |