LOS f: Calculate the expected (1) exchange rate and (2) domestic-currency holding period return on a foreign bond (security), given expected, predictable inflation rates, the beginning-of-period nominal exchange rate, and the constant real exchange rate.
A U.S. investor is considering investing in Swiss bonds. The $/SF (SF = Swiss Franc) exchange rate is 2. Inflation, which is completely predictable, is 5% and 3% in the U.S. and Switzerland, respectively. Current U.S. interest rates are 7% and Swiss interest rates are 5%. If the real exchange rate is constant, what is the domestic currency return from buying the Swiss bond?
The domestic currency return on the Swiss bond is equal to the foreign interest rate plus the currency appreciation. Since the inflation differential favors the SF and the real rate is assumed to be constant, the SF will appreciate by 2%. Hence, the domestic currency return is 7% (= 5% foreign rate + 2% currency appreciation).
[此贴子已经被作者于2010-4-15 15:46:59编辑过] |