Marc Gnocci, CFA, is considering the inclusion of the common stock of Konteco Incorporated in several of his clients’ accounts. Konteco provides centralized telephone systems in remote areas of underdeveloped nations. As a result of a recent economic downturn, the price of Konteco’s stock price has declined dramatically. However, given the current economic outlook and Konteco’s long-range earnings forecast, Gnocci believes that Konteco is currently trading below its intrinsic value and has a required return of 15%. In order to determine if Konteco is indeed underpriced, and to prepare a recommendation for his clients, Gnocci has assembled the information presented in the following tables. Gnocci has decided to estimate the current value of Konteco’s stock using the free cash flow to equity (FCFE) approach. He believes that Konteco’s FCFE will grow at 20% for three years after 2006, then stabilize at 3% from 2010 onward. Gnocci assumes that Konteco’s capital expenditures, depreciation, and working capital will change in direct proportion to FCFE.
Konteco Incorporated
Income Statements for Year Ending December 31, 2006
(£ Millions)
|
2006 |
2005 |
Net sales |
530 |
500 |
Costs (excluding depreciation) |
381.6 |
360.0 |
Depreciation |
39.8 |
37.5 |
Total operating costs |
421.4 |
397.5 |
Earnings before interest and tax |
108.6 |
102.5 |
Interest expense |
(16.0) |
(13.9) |
Earnings before taxes |
92.6 |
88.6 |
Taxes (40%) |
(37.0) |
(35.4) |
Net income before preferred dividends |
55.6 |
53.2 |
Preferred dividends |
(7.4) |
(6.0) |
Net income available for common dividends |
48.2 |
47.2 |
Common dividends |
29.7 |
40.8 |
Additions to retained earnings |
18.5 |
6.4 |
Number of shares |
10 |
10 |
Dividends per share |
2.97 |
4.08 |
Additional information for 2006
Fixed capital investment |
62.3 |
Working capital investment |
10.5 |
Net borrowing |
13.7 |
Konteco’s FCFE per share in 2006 is closest to:
FCFE is the cash available to common shareholders after funding capital requirements, working capital needs, and debt financing requirements.
Konteco’s 2006 FCFE per share is calculated as (all numbers are in millions of £):
Net income |
= |
48.2 |
+ depreciation |
= |
39.8 |
– capital expenditures |
= |
62.3 |
– investment in working capital |
= |
10.5 |
+ net borrowing |
= |
13.7 |
FCFE |
= |
28.9 |
÷ number of common shares |
= |
10 |
FCFE2006 per share |
= |
£2.89 |
The current share value of Konteco’s common stock using the FCFE approach is closest to:
This is a two-stage FCFE growth model application. To determine the current per-share value using the two-stage FCFE approach, it is necessary to compute (1) the present value of the FCFE for each of the high-growth years (2007, 2008, and 2009) and (2) the present value of the terminal value of the FCFE at the end of high-growth period (year 2010).
Since all components of FCFE are expected to grow at the same rate, FCFE can be projected directly using the common growth rates. (Note: watch out for this simplifying assumption on the exam.)
The two-stage FCFE model can now be applied to determine the value of Konteco’s common stock as follows. First estimate the terminal value using a single-stage FCFE model:
Then calculate the present value of the estimated cash flows, including terminal value, at 15%:
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