The concept of spot and forward rates is most closely associated with which of the following explanations of the term structure of interest rates?
A) |
Expectations hypothesis. | |
B) |
Segmented market theory. | |
C) |
Liquidity premium theory. | |
The pure expectations theory purports that forward rates are solely a function of expected future spot rates. In other words, long-term interest rates equal the mean of future expected short-term rates. This implies that an investor could earn the same return by investing in a 1-year bond or by sequentially investing in two 6-month bonds. The implications for the shape of the yield curve under the pure expectations theory are:
- If the yield-curve is upward sloping, short-term rates are expected to rise.
- If the curve is downward sloping, short-term rates are expected to fall.
- A flat yield curve implies that the market expects short-term rates to remain constant.
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