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Question on Forward/Spot Rate and Interest Equilibrium
I encountered this equation while reading the Schweser's Notes on Forward/Spot Rate
Domestic Interest Rate - Foreign Interest Rate = (FWD Exchange Rate - Spot Exchange Rate) / Spot Exchange Rate
Exchange Rates are expressed as DC/FC
Let's assume D-interest is > F-interest, that would make the left side positive. This means FWD > Spot Rate for the right side to also be positive. Since exchange rate is expressed as DC/FC, this means the domestic currency must have depreciated against the foreign currency.
FWD = $1.2 / peso Spot = $1 / peso
Now let's go back to the left side. If D-interest > F-interest, this means domestic currency will rise since the real interest is higher for domestic country. Which means domestic currency will appreciate..
Why do these two contradict each other?
Regards |
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