LOS 8.g. Total Prob / Unconditional Prob understand, therefore, feeling, someone, simple

rosemary2011

I don't quite get the concept of this. I've got a feeling this is a real simple concept but that I've over complicated in my head and now can't untangle it. Perhaps someone can explain.

Text says Total Prob rule...explains the unconditional prob of an event in terms of probabilities that are conditional upon other events.

But I see this as a contradiction, as I understand unconditional probability as the prob of an event regardless of past or future occurance of other events. So therefore how can Unconditional Prob be explained in terms of probs that are conditional upon other events?

Mechanic

Hey Superinconsistent, I always use diagrams or probability trees for these questions. They're great for making the answers look logical. Sorry I can't be of any more help. It's Saturday night and I have a few beers.

Kiakaha

Thanks Soddy. Hey us two saps posting on AF on a Sat nite - and such a fine city to be out boozing in. Time for a beer I think...

leadcfa

Hey beatthecfa, that example does clear the concept up somewhat (I re-read it several times I'll admit). Thanks - and good job in answering this and the other Quants questions posted today.

rgonzalez

Good answer beatthecfa.

Superinconsistent, are you going to the CFA Ireland candidates night in Dicey's on the 27th?

shootingstar

Hey Soddy. That's actually the first I've heard of it. I guess I should read back over my emails in case I overlooked it. I probably would go. Assume you're going? Karen too?

soddy1979

I'm going. Karen knows about it but I don't know if she is going - she hasn't said. Email me at cfasod at gma!l and i'll send you on a copy of the invite if you haven't got it.

joemoran

Superinconsistent Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hey Soddy. That's actually the first I've heard of
> it. I guess I should read back over my emails in
> case I overlooked it. I probably would go. Assume
> you're going? Karen too?


I sent you a mail asking about this :-P

Not sure - I'm a probable

ramdabom

Didn't see it Karen sorry. I'll email you early next week and see how your fixed.

burnsy562000

Ha sorry soddy - I sent the mail to Superinconsistent about the diceys night out

You won't catch me at my work email as I'm off this week....hence why I didnt see the cfa ireland email - they go to my work one as well! you can catch me on karenccfa@live.ie while I'm off