malbec

I think the basic assumption is that if a catalyst hasn't happened in a year, then it seems unlikely to take place in the next year. Although the position is still technically in an undervalued asset, it's not earning fast enough and the capital should be reallocated to something that is more likely to revert to fair value.

It may be that when you recompose the portfolio a year from now, the same company is on the list, in which case, you don't have to turn it over. So maybe you want to compose the new list before you sell what you're holding.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at Thursday, May 5, 2011 at 03:34PM by bchadwick.

random_walker47

Earnings finance dividends. If you have a low earnings yield and a high dividend yield then your payout ratio must be quite high, which signals a lack of organic growth opportunities. It is really a case by case thing though, because I feel far too many companies (particularly traditional "growth" companies, like in tech) have a negative view of issuing dividends because it signals that their growth phase is over. I would rather a corporation be honest with itself about its prospects, rather than continuing to plow money into low return investments. Often it is much better for shareholders if the company would just accept the reality of a business cycle and start paying a dividend.

I often screen on dividend yield before doing further work. I'm going to cherry pick a win for an example of why. Seedrill was yielding 12% in the aftermath of the gulf oil spill, which is an outlier to say the least. Usually when you see something like that you can determine with some cursory work that the the company will need to cut dividends in the future and the yield number is not relevant for the upcoming quarters/year. So, the time investment in pretty minimal. With Seadrill, it looked like they would be able to pay the dividend because their contract pipeline was solid, day rates were long term and their exposure to the gulf was minimal (one rig). Also, while some drillers are starting to now, many did not pay a dividend at that time.

Seadrill's high dividend was a signal of corporate health, which is why dividends can be a useful screen. The negative impact on stock price from a dividend cut is typically more severe than that from reduction of cessation of a share repurchase program. Management knows this so an astute management will only declare a dividend if they are reasonably assured of their company's ability to pay it.

pimpineasy

I think value investors will likely more be concerned with the fcf backing up these numbers rather than favoring either earnings or div yield...

busterbluth

Muddahudda Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thanks AF buddies. My question basically arose
> after reading The Little Book That Beats the
> Market which espouses the Earnings Yield
> (specifically EBIT / Enterprise Value) as the key
> metric. However, another line of thinking that I
> was reading states that if you dissect long run
> returns to equities, then it is the dividend yield
> that is crucial because you receive hard cash. I'm
> trying to figure out a set of screens. I'm
> conscious that earnings yield as stated is pre-tax
> and debt distortions which is helpful in creating
> a level playing field. But cash is cash is cash.
> And paying cash keeps companies honest, sorta.
> Realise that I need to do more reading into this
> and may be losing sight of something basic, but
> thought I would throw it out there.

the long term average returns do depend on the return of equity via dividends, but that just proves how poorly cash is managed by corporate america. Think about this, if a company generates a lot of cash but doesn't return it, then its asset base will increase year over year and act as a deterrent on ROIC. In this scenario the company gradually become a worse business over time thru declining ROIC and no longer screened by the magic formula.

chandsingh

So why holding a stock for more than 1 year makes you a neophyte investor? Have you not heard of Peter Lynch, Phillip Fisher, Warren Buffett, Eddie lampert, venture capitalists, LBO's...Seems your mind is brainwashed by working in this shop and you seem to be losing sight of big picture...It takes sometime for the story to play out...