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发表于 2012-3-23 11:07
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Joseph Brophy and Pamela Carr work in the collections department of Swank's, an upscale department store in downtown Cleveland. Swank's is a publicly traded company with more than 400 locations nationwide, and is also rated by national publications as one of the best places to work. Brophy and Carr like their jobs, and like the company for which they work.
Swank's recently switched from a defined-benefit plan to a defined-contribution plan, and employees with vested pension assets were given lump sums, with the option of investing that money in the new plan. Both Brophy and Carr have worked for Swank's for more than 10 years, and as such receive sizable payments, which they intend to move into the new plan.
On the day enrollment forms arrive at the Cleveland office, Brophy and Carr have lunch together to discuss the new pension plan. The investment packet contains a short newsletter that provides historical performance data on the investment options. Here are the choices:- An S&P 500 Index fund.
- A large-cap value fund.
- A small-cap value fund.
- A small-cap growth fund.
- A mid-cap blend fund.
- An aggressive-growth stock fund.
- A foreign-stock fund.
- A long-term bond fund.
- A short-term bond fund.
- Swank's stock, available at a 5% discount to market price.
Brophy and Carr know nothing about investing, but the past returns of the funds look pretty high, and Swank's stock has done very well in recent years. Carr, who is 15 years younger than Brophy, likes the returns on some of the stock funds and on Swank's stock. Brophy is five years away from retirement and feels he's too old to learn about financial management. During his discussion with Carr, he remembers an article he read in Forbes years ago. He can recall nothing about the article except that the writer said diversification was a good idea. Carr responds by warning that you have to make bets on a winner if you expect to earn good returns.
Brophy assumes that Swank's wouldn't recommend any funds unless they were good, and in an effort to diversify, puts 10% of his money into each option.
Carr wants to earn the biggest returns possible, so she invests 50% of her money in Swank's stock and split the remaining cash between the small-cap growth fund and the aggressive-growth fund.
Twelve months after the start of the new pension plan, all Swank's employees have the opportunity to change their investment elections. Brophy sees that his portfolio is up roughly in line with the S&P 500 Index, so he leaves his elections intact. Carr notes that Swank's stock has fallen 25%, and the portfolio was roughly flat with year-earlier levels. Grumbling, she changes her allocation so the portion currently in Swank's stock is divided between the available bond funds.
Which of the following least likely reflects Brophy's portfolio decisions?
Brophy's original allocation was a classic example of 1/n diversification, with 10% in each of 10 investments. Brophy's focus on recent results is an example of the availability bias. Familiarity addresses such biases as favoring company stock. That's not an issue for Brophy. (Study Session 3, LOS 9.c)
Carr's initial investment choices show she avoided falling into which behavioral characteristic?
Carr's investment choices clearly show overconfidence in her ability to predict which investments will do well. Her choices are driven by an emotional desire to make bets and win big thus she is extrapolating favorable past returns into the future referred to as representativeness. However, Carr has one goal, and that's to maximize returns. She is most certainly not creating a portfolio pyramid. (Study Session 3, LOS 8.d)
Brophy's initial investment choices show he has fallen prey to which of the following traps? A)
| Naive diversification. |
| | |
Allocating an equal amount of retirement savings to each investment choice is called naive diversification or 1/n naive diversification. Familiarity and status quo bias do not come into play with Brophy's initial investment decision. (Study Session 3, LOS 9.c)
Swank's wants to improve its defined-contribution pension plan. Which of the following actions will be least helpful to employees? A)
| Allow the employees to change their allocations more than once a year. |
| B)
| Provide detailed financial and performance data on the company stock. |
| C)
| Increase the number of fund options. |
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Companies cannot force employees to invest in their stock, but many strongly encourage such investment. Even if the stock is a good investment, such an emphasis is not always a good idea, as employees may see such information as a strong endorsement for investing in company stock. Increased fund options and more frequent allocations give employees additional flexibility in their investments. (Study Session 3, LOS 9.c)
Brophy appears to be:
Brophy read an article on diversification in Forbes, then reinforced the ideas based on the newsletter. His frame is diversification, and he does what he thinks is best in purchasing an equal-dollar amount of all 10 choices. There is no evidence that Brophy is particularly loss averse or prone to regret, just inexperienced. (Study Session 3, LOS 8.b)
Neither Brophy nor Carr made optimal investment decisions. In the wake of the portfolio rebalancing, which of the following statements best reflect the situation of which employee? | Has best-allocated portfolio | Exhibits herding behavior |
A)
| Carr | Neither Carr nor Brophy |
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| B)
| Brophy | Neither Carr nor Brophy |
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After the rebalancing, Brophy most likely has more than 80% of his assets in equities, which is almost certainly too much for a working man five years from retirement. Carr, on the other hand, has about 38% of her assets in bonds, which is probably closer to the optimum level for a worker with at least 10 years of experience but who is still about 20 years from retirement. Neither Carr nor Brophy appear to be influenced by anyone else's investment decisions, so neither is exhibiting herding mentality. (Study Session 3, LOS 9.f) |
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