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Reading 43: Valuation in Emerging Markets - LOS b ~ Q11-15

11.Which of the following information on Kenton Koncepts is most valuable in the analysis of long-term:

 

    Supply trends?

    Profitability?

 

A)     Order chart                          Cost-cutting initiatives

B)    Plant upgrades                         Product list

C)    Order chart                             Product list

D)    Plant upgrades                         Cost-cutting initiatives

12.Based only on the information above, where do Blevins’ and Karnack Analysis’ industries fall on the business life cycle?

 

    Blevins

Karnack Analysis

 

A)    Growth                              Growth

B)    Decline                             Pioneer

C     Mature                            Growth

D)    Mature                             Pioneer

13.Which of the following issues will be least effectively addressed if LeMond simply adjusts the financial statements by reducing the cash flows of each company in the country by a set amount?

A)   The risk of political instability.

B)   Limited availability of foreign and domestic investment capital.

C)   Vulnerability of the companies to privatization.

D)   Unusually high inflation.

14.Plicher’s cost of equity is closest to:

A)   44.2%.

B)   42.4%.

C)   38.4%.

D)   58.6%.

15.Assuming the cost of equity is 25.4 percent and the local risk-free rate is 15 percent, Plicher’s weighted average cost of capital is closest to:

A)   7.74%.

B)   10.10%.

C)   13.86%.

D)   9.61%.

答案和详解如下:

11.Which of the following information on Kenton Koncepts is most valuable in the analysis of long-term:

 

    Supply trends?

    Profitability?

 

A)     Order chart                          Cost-cutting initiatives

B)    Plant upgrades                         Product list

C)    Order chart                             Product list

D)    Plant upgrades                         Cost-cutting initiatives

The correct answer was C) 

All four of the pieces of information have value, but two stand out. The list of plant upgrades is useful for estimating Kenton’s production, but an industrywide chart of orders and backlogs illustrates more than demand trends. By considering both orders and backlogs, an analyst can back into supply analysis and draw useful conclusions about the current supplies and industry production capacity. While cost-cutting initiatives will have an effect on profit margins, particularly in the short term, of more importance in the long term is the company’s ability to produce items the market wants. Kenton’s list of products and niches has substantial value for determining whether the company can continue to operate profitably.

12.Based only on the information above, where do Blevins’ and Karnack Analysis’ industries fall on the business life cycle?

 

    Blevins

Karnack Analysis

 

A)    Growth                              Growth

B)    Decline                             Pioneer

C     Mature                            Growth

D)    Mature                             Pioneer

The correct answer was D)

Blevins’ growth rate suggests it is not on the decline. In some ways Blevins looks like a growth company, but companies can post solid growth within a mature industry, particularly if they are taking market share. And Blevins’ profit margins and concerns about the erosion of an already powerful brand are characteristic of an established company in a mature industry. Karnack’s difficulty in funding expansion hints at high capital needs, and concerns about new products suggest it is in a pioneer industry.

13.Which of the following issues will be least effectively addressed if LeMond simply adjusts the financial statements by reducing the cash flows of each company in the country by a set amount?

A)   The risk of political instability.

B)   Limited availability of foreign and domestic investment capital.

C)   Vulnerability of the companies to privatization.

D)   Unusually high inflation.

The correct answer was C)

Inflation, capital limitations, and political instability will have a similar effect on companies throughout a country. Some industries are more vulnerable to privatization than others, and simply reducing cash flows for all companies by a set amount will probably understate the cash flows of companies in industries not likely to be privatized.

14.Plicher’s cost of equity is closest to:

A)   44.2%.

B)   42.4%.

C)   38.4%.

D)   58.6%.

The correct answer was B)

The cost of equity = the risk-free rate + beta × market risk premium. First, the risk-free rate. We can’t use the U.S. risk-free rate, and Llaho bills may be illiquid or denominated in another currency. So we start with the 10-year Treasury yield, then add the difference between Llaho’s inflation and U.S. inflation.

4% + 2.5% + 25% - 3.5% = 28%.

For beta, we use the industry beta, not the beta derived from stock returns. The market risk premium is the global premium.

Thus, the cost of capital is 28% + 1.6 × 9% = 42.4%.

15.Assuming the cost of equity is 25.4 percent and the local risk-free rate is 15 percent, Plicher’s weighted average cost of capital is closest to:

A)   7.74%.

B)   10.10%.

C)   13.86%.

D)   9.61%.

The correct answer was D)

The weighted average cost of capital equals (equity / assets) × cost of equity + (debt / assets) × after-tax cost of debt.

We have equity, assets, debt, and cost of equity values. To calculate the cost of debt, we start with the local risk-free rate plus the U.S. credit spread on comparable debt, or 15% + 1.3% = 16.3%. Then we multiply 16.3% by (1 – marginal tax rate). 16.3% × 70% = 11.41%.

Here is the entire equation:

($85.2 million / $279.5 million) × 25.4% = 7.74%.
($45.7 million / $279.5 million) × 11.41% = 1.87%.
7.74% + 1.87% = 9.61%.

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