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Reading 25: U.S. Inflation, Unemployment, and Business Cycl

Q5. Which of these factors is least likely to change the natural rate of unemployment?

A)    An unexpected tightening of the money supply reduces aggregate demand.

B)    Labor market deregulation makes it easier for workers to change jobs.

C)    Long-term demographic shifts result in fewer young adults in the labor force.

Q6. For an economy operating at full employment, if actual inflation is less than expected inflation, what will most likely be the effects on the unemployment rate in the short run and in the long run?

          Short run                                 Long run

 

A) Decrease                                   No effect

B) Increase                                     Increase

C) Increase                                     No effect

Q7. In the Phillips curve model of the relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate, a shift to a new short-run Phillips curve represents a change in the:

A)    actual inflation rate.

B)    expected inflation rate.

C)    unemployment rate.

Q8. Consider an economy operating at full employment, but with a high inflation rate. Based on the short-run Phillips curve, an unexpected decrease in money supply growth is likely to result in the following changes in the unemployment rate and inflation rate:

          Unemployment rate                              Inflation rate

 

A) Increase                                  Remain above the desired rate

B) Increase                                  Fall to the desired rate

C) Remain unchanged              Fall to the desired rate

答案和详解如下:

Q5. Which of these factors is least likely to change the natural rate of unemployment?

A)    An unexpected tightening of the money supply reduces aggregate demand.

B)    Labor market deregulation makes it easier for workers to change jobs.

C)    Long-term demographic shifts result in fewer young adults in the labor force.

Correct answer is A)

The natural rate of unemployment is the sum of frictional and structural unemployment. An unexpected decrease in the money supply would bring about cyclical unemployment. The natural rate is influenced by such factors as composition and mobility of the labor force and the level of technology available in the economy.

Q6. For an economy operating at full employment, if actual inflation is less than expected inflation, what will most likely be the effects on the unemployment rate in the short run and in the long run?

          Short run                                 Long run

 

A) Decrease                                   No effect

B) Increase                                     Increase

C) Increase                                     No effect

Correct answer is C)

Using the Phillips curve model, if actual inflation is less than expected inflation, the short-run effect is to reduce GDP growth and increase the unemployment rate. If the lower inflation rate is maintained, in the long run it becomes the new expected inflation rate, and unemployment returns to its natural rate.

Q7. In the Phillips curve model of the relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate, a shift to a new short-run Phillips curve represents a change in the:

A)    actual inflation rate.

B)    expected inflation rate.

C)    unemployment rate.

Correct answer is B)

A short-run Phillips curve is constructed assuming a particular expected inflation rate, given a constant long-run Phillips curve at the natural rate of unemployment. Changes in the actual inflation rate or the short-run unemployment rate would represent movement along the short-run Phillips curve. If actual inflation is sustained above or below the expected inflation rate, inflation expectations adjust in the long run. This would be seen as a new short-run Phillips curve that intersects the long-run Phillips curve at the new expected inflation rate.

Q8. Consider an economy operating at full employment, but with a high inflation rate. Based on the short-run Phillips curve, an unexpected decrease in money supply growth is likely to result in the following changes in the unemployment rate and inflation rate:

          Unemployment rate                              Inflation rate

 

A) Increase                                  Remain above the desired rate

B) Increase                                  Fall to the desired rate

C) Remain unchanged              Fall to the desired rate

Correct answer is A)

The short-run Phillips curve illustrates the downward-sloped short-run relationship between inflation and unemployment. According to an analysis of the Phillips curve, an unexpected decrease in the growth of the money supply will cause inflation to remain above the desired rate, and will cause the economy to fall into a recession (high unemployment). For example, because the change in Fed policy is unexpected, households will continue to have high inflation expectations and will negotiate commensurately high wage increases. Therefore, inflation will not drop significantly even though the Fed has tightened the money supply growth. Moreover, as illustrated by the Phillips curve, the unexpected decrease in money supply growth combined with high inflation expectations will throw the economy into a recession (high unemployment).

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