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标题: 求教cfa一级quantitative methods问题!!答案表示看不太懂呀(哭) [打印本页]

作者: 森    时间: 2019-1-7 16:47     标题: 求教cfa一级quantitative methods问题!!答案表示看不太懂呀(哭)

1.A stock has an expected mean return of 8 percent and standard deviation of 2 percent. Assuming the return is normally distributed, the probability that the return will fall between 6 and 10 percent is closest to:
A.        50%
B.        68%
C.        90%
选b,过程是怎么出来的呢?答案只表明了和shortfall risk有关

2.At the beginning the stock price is $10. The price movement of the stock follows a one-period binomial process. The upside of the stock price is 1.06 times the original price, and the downside is 0.94 times the original price. If the average ending price after a 5000 independent is 10.2, what is the probability of an up move(p)?
A.        0.11
B.        0.66
C.        0.18
选b,考点是binomial distribution
作者: fairyhead    时间: 2019-2-28 21:03

For question 1, it is all about standard normal distribution. The mean is 8%, and std. dev. is 2%, so 6% is one standard deviation below mean while 10% is one standard deviation above mean. Based on the Z statistical table, z-value = 1 has a probability 34%, thus, the probability of return falling between 6% and 8% is 68%.
For question 2, you can use common sense to find the correct answer: if the chance of going up is less than 50%, then the final expected value of the stock would be less than the initial value. So the other two options are 0.11 and 0.18 (implying a down side probability of 0.89 and 0.82), their final expected values would be very close to 0. This is a very poorly constructed question and I don't expect it will appear in the exam.
作者: selmazi60    时间: 2021-9-21 22:19     标题: Hot galleries, thousands new daily.

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