标题: So we're not going to get 46%, are we? [打印本页] 作者: w1977 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24 标题: So we're not going to get 46%, are we?
I'm kicking myself for not taking this in June. How did that pass rate get so elevated over historical norms and is there any chance CFA keeps it elevated?作者: waldziuchna 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
cv Wrote:
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> I'm kicking myself for not taking this in June.
> How did that pass rate get so elevated over
> historical norms and is there any chance CFA keeps
> it elevated?
a lot of people lost their jobs in 2009, so decided to actually SHOW UP for the exam, hence the high pass rate.
Remember the lower pass rate in other years also includes all the no shows. I am pretty sure more people showed up for the June exam than in previous years.作者: RobertA 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
Yo!
Pass rates do NOT include no shows. FACT!作者: dcfox83 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
Yeah beatthecfa is right, pass rates do not include the no shows, otherwise the fail rate would be much much higher.
Was 2009 the year where they implemented the 3 choices format, rather then 4, that may explain the sudden increase...
Also the July exams have more test centers available which means you might get a more deversified population and possibly higher pass rates (rather then just big city folk or people willing to travel a lot to reach a test center)作者: ramdabom 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
There were a lot empty seats between people, I think those are the people that didn't show up作者: shootingstar 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
cfagoal2 Wrote:
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> There were a lot empty seats between people, I
> think those are the people that didn't show up
In NYC, at least, there were many open seats, and when I checked in, the proctors seemingly had full lists of names....作者: jim8z3 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
I've heard a few people say this, and I don't get it? Sure, more people passed in June, but that in no way means that the exam was easier? There was a lot of very intelligent people laid off, who decided to take it, and they passed.
I failed band 10 in June, and I just retook in December, and in my opinion, December was easier. So don't beat yourself up about it.作者: kasinkei 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
I got band 9 in June and I thought the December exam was much tougher.
I think the pass rate was artificially higher in June because they switched the format to 3 answers. I think they tried to adjust for that by increasing the difficulty of this test because the high pass rate was unintended in June.作者: ramzes 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
they can not have an unintended rate, if they thought it was too high, they can just raise the MPS since it is not published作者: dece2011 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
cfagoal2 Wrote:
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> they can not have an unintended rate, if they
> thought it was too high, they can just raise the
> MPS since it is not published
I cannot be lead to believe that the CFAI would not anticipate a 3 option exam being easier...作者: siavosh 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
I thought if 100 people sign up and only 50 show up to take it and of that only 25 pass then the pass rate is 25/100 i.e. 25%?
are you guys saying its 25/50 = 50%?作者: bapswarrior 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
Hank Scorpio Wrote:
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> cfagoal2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > they can not have an unintended rate, if they
> > thought it was too high, they can just raise
> the
> > MPS since it is not published
>
>
> I cannot be lead to believe that the CFAI would
> not anticipate a 3 option exam being easier...
I thought that too, but in all the stuff they published at the time of the change, they insisted they felt it wouldn't make a difference, because at least one answer was always implausibly incorrect, and majority of candidates knew that, and so it was effectively always best of three.
I'm not convinced, but hey, I'm not going to argue with the great and powerful CFAI!作者: mnieman 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
ZeroBonus Wrote:
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> I thought if 100 people sign up and only 50 show
> up to take it and of that only 25 pass then the
> pass rate is 25/100 i.e. 25%?
>
> are you guys saying its 25/50 = 50%?
Pass rate is # of people who pass/Total # of test takers
If you take the morning and skip the afternoon, you are not considered a test-taker
If you don't show up at all, you are not considered a test-taker作者: ftwcfa 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
The pass % is only from the people who attended the exam, that's for sure.
But i think probably they won't even include the people who did not attend both sessions since they don't grade their exams.作者: johnnyBuz 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
ZeroBonus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> cv Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I'm kicking myself for not taking this in June.
> > How did that pass rate get so elevated over
> > historical norms and is there any chance CFA
> keeps
> > it elevated?
>
>
> a lot of people lost their jobs in 2009, so
> decided to actually SHOW UP for the exam, hence
> the high pass rate.
>
> Remember the lower pass rate in other years also
> includes all the no shows. I am pretty sure more
> people showed up for the June exam than in
> previous years.
ARe you sure it included no shows?作者: kmf229 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
Go with assumption that only 1 in 3 will pass the exam.作者: Ionutzakis 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
I'm pretty sure I remember Stalla giving a presentation and them saying the pass rate included noshows. Also I somewhat remember my CFA professor saying the same thing. Don't quote me on the latter.作者: draz 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
This is straight from the FAQs section on the CFA website..
"Do the pass/fail numbers published by CFA Institute include all the registered candidates or just the ones who took the exam?
The pass rates include only those candidates who actually took the exams. The numbers do not include no-show candidates or those who withdrew. "
There you go, issue resolved. % does not include no shows.作者: scr879 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
If I were in CFAI management committee and if there was any issue of revenues going down, I would get more people into the program.
That is, by letting more people pass L1 and then restrict their exit from L2 and L3.
That way, CFA program is not diluted and they still get more revenues.
If this is their strategy, I dont see any reason why pass rates should be any lower this time.
Anyways, we will have verification in less than 2 months.
Hope it is like this and good luck to you all for your results. I dont mean to take away any credit for your hard work though. But wishing for higher pass rate is wishing for better luck on your side.作者: soddy1979 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
from the historical pass rates, the trend is that june/dec results for the same year was always the same with about 2% MAbsoluteDeviation.
so my prediction is 46% for december too
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at Monday, December 7, 2009 at 10:16PM by hellohello.作者: Bulla564 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
The high pass rate is due to 3 answer choices and the amount of ppl who are jobless sitting at home and studying for this exam (I know about 5 myself). That's what killed the curve in June I believe. If you guys noticed on the December exam, most of the questions, especially in the pm section, you couldn't decide between 2 answers. They made the exam harder for sure. Plus of course the more ppl pass the less $ they make come to think of it so I honestly believe they will make sure to keep passing % at 30-35.作者: Kiakaha 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
There are some 80% and 90% pass rates in there作者: cchang 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
The 3 answer format leading to a higher pass rate argument holds no water when looking at June results. Everyone cheered when Level 1 pass rates came out in June at 46%. The thought being, people were out of work, studied more, and had a better chance at guessing the right answer this time around.
Then Level 2 and 3 scores came out in August, and this argument stopped very quickly. Level 2 is all multiple choice and also had the 3 answer format for the first time. The Level 2 pass rate dropped to 41% from 46% in 2008. Level 3 is half multiple choice, so a direct comparison can't be drawn, but still, that pass rate dropped to 49% from 53% in 2008.
Yes, the Level 1 pass rate was unusually high in June, and there may be a specific reason for it, but I refuse to believe it had to do with the 3 answer format. The CFAI sets that Minimum Passing Score to be whatever they want. The pass rate could be 30% for the December test, it could be 50%. Only they know, and you'll just have to wait and see.作者: disiz64 时间: 2011-7-11 15:24
I still do think the pass rate was higher due to ppl studying at home. Most ppl started studying lvl 1 when they were let go from their jobs so that doesn't really affect lvl 2 scores, there wasn't a recession when lvl 2 ppl took lvl1.
Yes I do think CFAI sets the min passing score but I do believe the high pass rate in June was unanticipated.
I for sure believe Dec passing rate will be lower. We'll just wait and see.作者: sdada 时间: 2011-7-11 15:25
and i thought the pass rate is either of
a) 70%
b) 70% of the top 1 percentile scores.
Has it changed in last few years.
BearDown15 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The 3 answer format leading to a higher pass rate
> argument holds no water when looking at June
> results. Everyone cheered when Level 1 pass rates
> came out in June at 46%. The thought being, people
> were out of work, studied more, and had a better
> chance at guessing the right answer this time
> around.
>
> Then Level 2 and 3 scores came out in August, and
> this argument stopped very quickly. Level 2 is all
> multiple choice and also had the 3 answer format
> for the first time. The Level 2 pass rate dropped
> to 41% from 46% in 2008. Level 3 is half multiple
> choice, so a direct comparison can't be drawn, but
> still, that pass rate dropped to 49% from 53% in
> 2008.
>
> Yes, the Level 1 pass rate was unusually high in
> June, and there may be a specific reason for it,
> but I refuse to believe it had to do with the 3
> answer format. The CFAI sets that Minimum Passing
> Score to be whatever they want. The pass rate
> could be 30% for the December test, it could be
> 50%. Only they know, and you'll just have to wait
> and see.作者: JRossSter 时间: 2011-7-11 15:25
I used to care about things like this in college where grades were curved based on performance of the class. Then I realized the only important thing to worry about is your own individual performance and doing the best you can. Stick to this and you will always come out on top. Dont worry about what everyone else is doing.作者: studyn 时间: 2011-7-11 15:25
The higher pass mark is almost certainly due to the fact that more candidates spent more time studying (i.e. were out of work).
Given CFAI's MPS calculation (Modified Angoff method) it is very unlikely that the three-part answer would make the slightest difference. Suppose that all four answers had looked equally plausible. The MPS previously would have meant that 1 in 4 guesses were right; now it is 1 in 3, an increase of just 1 in 12. Given that you need around 2/3 correct answers to pass, this difference is just a few marks, a minor tweak in the MPS.
So each of you has a particular hurdle to achieve in order to pass, but that is entirely independent of how your peers perform.
