thought of the first two but no chance of recalling the third (still cant think of what it means!)
Approches - Pros - Cons
1. Econometrics - multifactor factor interaction - structural breaks, data intensive, past indicator of future issue
2. Indicators - simple quick and easy - often lagged indicators, contradicting indicators.
3.作者: oneboy 时间: 2011-7-11 19:22
pimpineasy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> suvey too
Capital Market Expectations is by
survey,
statistical models,
DCF models,
Risk Premium and
Fin Market equil
own analyst judgemet
Economic Forecasting is by
1. Econometrics
2. Leading Indicator
3. Checklist
taken from vol3 page 109作者: Darien 时间: 2011-7-11 19:22
add panel method (like survey but with ongoing set of experts)作者: bodhisattva 时间: 2011-7-11 19:22
econometric models, leading indicators and checklist approach作者: Zestt 时间: 2011-7-11 19:22
Let me "dump" what's in my mind...too full now.
1. Econometrics:
+) can build a complex model; once model built, can have a quick forecasting, precise.
-) too complex, not easy to understand; may need to interpret the result; not working well in a downward market.
2. Economic Indicator:
+) simple and easy to use; can be combined for diff purpose; available from third party sources; research supports its usafulness.
-) the economic condition may change over time; some forecasting from leading indicator may be misleading.
3. Checklist:
+) easy to use, forgot...
-) may be time intensive? subjective. may not work for complicated investment objectives.
