Last summers L1 pass rate was 46% vs 32% for the Dec exam...
Are we due a higher pass rate with candidates putting the effort into their studies or will CFA present us with a shocker of a paper?作者: wizofoz 时间: 2011-7-13 09:20
theL1 pass rate last summer was too high - they'll probably be pretty tough this time around作者: xilinx_altera 时间: 2011-7-13 09:30
My guess, based on absolutely no evidence or rationale at all, is 45%作者: firat 时间: 2011-7-13 09:40
I'm not liking my chances at the moment, that's for sure作者: economicz 时间: 2011-7-13 09:50
I appreciate the comments ref last summer, but just by looking at the pass rates above, there almost looks to be some give and take adjustments to the pass rate based on the previous years level,,agree 45% would make sense, but how do you shoot for that with any accuracy?
Tough is all very well, consistency would make more sense as far as candidates are concerned.作者: xilinx_altera 时间: 2011-7-13 09:59
looks like there is negative serial correlation in the pass rates...作者: maryli 时间: 2011-7-13 10:09
44%, everyone who used AF since L1 will pass!! whoot whoot作者: zephyranalyst 时间: 2011-7-13 10:19
I have run a regression analysis and the pass mark will be between 34% and 39% (95% level of confidence). By 2025 the pass rate will be between -3% and 2% (95% level of confidence)
The regression never lies.作者: random_walker47 时间: 2011-7-13 10:29
BobFishcake Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have run a regression analysis and the pass mark
> will be between 34% and 39% (95% level of
> confidence). By 2025 the pass rate will be between
> -3% and 2% (95% level of confidence)
>
> The regression never lies.
What's your R^2? Did you test for conditional heteroskedasticity or serial correlation? Did you take into account the exam format has changed from essay to multiple choice?
NO EXCUSES作者: genuinecfa 时间: 2011-7-13 10:38
It's time series data, guys. AR(1) with seasonality作者: tianxin 时间: 2011-7-13 10:48
BobFishcake Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have run a regression analysis and the pass mark
> will be between 34% and 39% (95% level of
> confidence). By 2025 the pass rate will be between
> -3% and 2% (95% level of confidence)
>
> The regression never lies.
LOL!作者: Rasec 时间: 2011-7-13 10:58
take a lag ...remove seasonality and find ou urself..作者: smuggycfa 时间: 2011-7-13 11:07
I'm going to venture a guess of <40%.....38% to be precise.作者: ninja1024 时间: 2011-7-13 11:17
wait a minute guys, this would be an out-of-sample forecast.
make sure your RMSE is the smallest.作者: chaojimali 时间: 2011-7-13 11:27
