标题: I made a guess for 20Qns - do you think i will pass? [打印本页] 作者: smartpants 时间: 2011-7-27 13:25 标题: I made a guess for 20Qns - do you think i will pass?
for the AM section (the ethics is particularly ambiguous) but the rest of the questions are alright. But the pm = = I make 3 guesses for Quants - all guesses for alternative and fixed and some other numbers = so in total, I did 20 guesses (hence 20 blanks as well). Do you think I can pass?
Honestly the pm one - I cant do fixed and alternative in particular. and a bit of quants. though the rest is quite ok.
How do you guys feel?作者: lucasg85 时间: 2011-7-27 13:25
If you know with certainty that you got all but 20 questions right, then you definitely passed. 100/ 120 = well over 70%作者: cv4cfa 时间: 2011-7-27 13:26
levin, are you a yiddishicup?作者: Sunshine4ever 时间: 2011-7-27 13:27
I'm sure you did fine. The problem (with me) is that even if I felt like I only flat-out guessed at a handful of questions, there are plenty of other questions that I thought I knew that I got wrong...very likely by falling for one of the distracter answers.作者: kkn006 时间: 2011-7-27 13:27
I think about it like this -
20 flat out guesses - youll get 1/3 right, so well be conservative and say you only get 6 right.
I dont know about you ( i had 5-6 blind guessses, but many educated or could easily eliminate 1). Say maybe 30 of those? lets put odds of each one of those at 50% being right. that means youve gotten 29 wrong so far. Thats still a pass
I also assume that there will be questions you thought you were right on but fell for a trap. I think a good % is that 85% of the ones you felt good about youll actually get (maybe a bit conservative). So that means youd get another .15*70 10 or so wrong, putting you at 39. So i would say worst case, thats about a 67.5%, which could be a (and i would guess it is) a pass. And thats with some (i would say) agressive assumptions or "worst case scenario" type deal.
In the end though, who knows. Just gotta wait it out.
GL作者: himanshumh 时间: 2011-7-27 13:28
20 guesses is nothing.
The big needle mover will be: out of the questions you think you got, how many you messed up on because you fell into CFAI's deathtrap of trickery作者: mar350 时间: 2011-7-27 13:29
builders Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> like arnold said at the end of Commando when asked
> to start up his unit again ..."noooo chance"
LMAO! Picturing that scene hahaha!作者: brain_wash_your 时间: 2011-7-27 13:29
If you guessed the right, then yes.作者: OmarAdnan 时间: 2011-7-27 13:29
The logic is this forum is flawed. Consider you need 70% to pass. Then you will need to get 84 questions right. That means you can get 36 wrong.
So you only have to get 72 right
Guess 48 and hope to get an average of 1/3 right = 14.4 correct
that gives you 84 correct = 70%
So one could argue you only need 60% to pass since the remaining 10% will be picked up on average anyway through "guessing"
Of course just because you didn't guess a question doesn't mean you got it right. The exam is designed to fool you into selecting wrong answers while believing you selected the right answer. Thus your perception of what was a guess and what wasn't is not accurate. A guess is not a bad thing as at least it steers you away from traps/tricks. While not guessing is not necessarily good as you may have fallen for many wrong answers which of course leaves you with 0% chance of scoring on that question.
Guessing questions does of course also imply that you were not properly prepared for the material that you were guessing on and does point to an overall lack of preparation for the exam but on its own is largely irrelevant in determining score.作者: chandsingh 时间: 2011-7-27 13:30
