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标题: Quantitative Methods 【Reading 12】Sample [打印本页]

作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:41     标题: [2012 L1] Quantitative Methods 【Session 3 - Reading 12】Sample

One of the underlying assumptions of technical analysis is that supply and demand is driven by:
A)
rational behavior during calm markets and irrational behavior during volatile markets.
B)
rational behavior only.
C)
both rational and irrational behavior.



Successful technical analysis assumes both rational and irrational behavior during all market conditions.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:44

One of the assumptions of technical analysis is:
A)
all analysts have all current information.
B)
the market is efficient.
C)
supply and demand are driven by rational and irrational behavior.



The market is driven by rational and irrational behavior.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:44

A technical analyst believes stock prices are primarily driven by:
A)
specialist trading.
B)
market supply and demand forces.
C)
the random walk hypothesis.


Other assumptions of technical analysis include:
Supply and demand is driven by both rational and irrational behavior, security prices move in trends that persist for long periods of time, and while the cause for changes in supply and demand are difficult to determine, the actual shifts in supply and demand can be observed in market price behavior.


作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:44

Which of the following is least likely an underlying assumption of technical analysis?
A)
Prices are determined by supply and demand.
B)
Markets are efficient and all known information is reflected in prices.
C)
Supply and demand for a stock is driven by rational and irrational behavior.



For technical analysis to succeed, markets must have some inefficiency in order for trends to develop.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:45

The advantages of using technical analysis include:
A)
the incorporation of psychological reasons behind price changes.
B)
ease in interpreting reasons behind stock price trends.
C)
complete objectivity.



Technical analysis avoids having to use fundamental data and adjusting for accounting problems, incorporates psychological as well as economic reasons behind price changes, and tells WHEN to buy; not WHY investors are buying. Drawbacks include subjective interpretation of charts and graphs.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:45

When a relative strength ratio (stock price over market price) is increasing, the stock is:
A)
tracking the index.
B)
underperforming the index.
C)
outperforming the index.



Relative strength: When prices of an individual stock or industry change, it is difficult to tell if the change is stock specific or caused by market movements. If two variables are changing at the same rate, the ratio created by dividing one of the variables by the other will remain constant. This is called the relative strength ratio.
Relative Strength = Stock Price / Market Price

作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:45

Point and figure charts are most likely to illustrate:
A)
the length of time over which trends persist.
B)
significant increases or decreases in volume.
C)
changes of direction in price trends.



A point-and-figure chart includes only significant price changes, regardless of their timing or volume. The technician determines what price interval to record as significiant (the box size) and when to note changes of direction in prices (the reversal size). Point and figure charts do not show volume and are not scaled to even time periods.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:46

A support level is the price range at which a technical analyst would expect the:
A)
supply of a stock to decrease substantially.
B)
demand for a stock to increase substantially.
C)
demand for a stock to decrease substantially.



Support and resistance levels.  Most stock prices remain relatively stable and fluctuate up and down from their true value.  The lower limit to these fluctuations is called a support level – the price range where a stock appears cheap and attracts buyers.  The upper limit is called a resistance level – the price range where a stock appears expensive and initiates selling.
Generally, a support level will develop after a stock has experienced a steady decline from a higher price level. Technicians believe that, at some price below the recent peak, other investors will buy who did not buy prior to the first price increase and have been waiting for a small reversal to get into the stock. When the price reaches this support price, demand surges and price and volume begin to increase again.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:46

The point where technicians expect a substantial increase in the demand for a stock to occur is called a:
A)
resistance level.
B)
break-out point.
C)
support level.



Support and resistance levels. Most stock prices remain relatively stable and fluctuate up and down from their true value. The lower limit to these fluctuations is called a support level – the price range where a stock appears cheap and attracts buyers. The upper limit is called a resistance level – the price range where a stock appears expensive and initiates selling.
Generally, a support level will develop after a stock has increased in price and profit taking occurs. Technicians believe that, at some price below the recent high, other investors will buy who did not buy prior to the first price increase and have been waiting for a small price decline to buy. When the price reaches this support price, demand increases substantially and price and volume begin to increase yet again.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:46

The resistance level signifies the price at which a stock's supply would be expected to:
A)
increase substantially.
B)
decrease substantially.
C)
cause the stock price to "break out".



Support and resistance levels. Most stock prices remain relatively stable and fluctuate up and down from their true value. The lower limit to these fluctuations is called a support level – the price range where a stock appears cheap and attracts buyers. The upper limit is called a resistance level – the price range where a stock appears expensive and initiates selling.
Generally, a resistance level tends to develop after a stock has experienced a steady decline from a higher price level. Technicians believe that the decline in price will cause some investors who acquired the stock at a higher price to look for an opportunity to sell it near their break-even points. Therefore, the supply of stock owned by investors is overhanging the market. When the price rebounds to the target price set by these investors, this overhanging supply of stock comes to the market and dramatically reverses the price increase on heavy volume.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:47

A trend is most likely to reverse if the price chart displays a:
A)
descending triangle pattern.
B)
head and shoulders pattern.
C)
rectangle pattern.



Head and shoulders (and inverse head and shoulders) patterns typically indicate a reversal of a price trend. Triangle and rectangle patterns typically suggest the price trend will continue in the same direction.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:47

A trend is most likely to continue if the price chart displays a(n):
A)
ascending triangle pattern.
B)
double top.
C)
inverse head and shoulders pattern.



Triangles are considered to be continuation patterns. An inverse head and shoulders pattern would most likely indicate the reversal of a downtrend, while a double top would most likely indicate the reversal of an uptrend.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:48

An inverse head and shoulders pattern most likely indicates:
A)
the continuation of a downtrend.
B)
the reversal of an uptrend.
C)
the reversal of a downtrend.



Inverse head and shoulders patterns typically occur after downtrends and indicate that the trend is going to reverse.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:48

A head and shoulders pattern is most likely to precede a reversal in trend if:
A)
the left shoulder, the head, and the right shoulder occur on increasing volume.
B)
volume decreases between the left shoulder and the head, then increases between the head and the right shoulder.
C)
the left shoulder, the head, and the right shoulder occur on decreasing volume.



Decreasing volume on each of the high prices in a head and shoulders pattern (or each of the low prices in an inverse head and shoulders) suggests weakening in the supply and demand forces that were driving the price trend.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:49

After trending upward for several weeks, the price of Vibex, Inc. stock reaches a high of $54 before falling to $48 over the following week. The stock then rallies to $57 but then declines again to $48. The following week, the stock increases to $52 on light volume before ending the week at $46. A technical analyst observing this pattern would be most likely to predict that Vibex stock will:
A)
decrease to $37.
B)
decrease to $39.
C)
increase to $50.



The pattern described here is a head and shoulders top with the head at $57 and the neckline at $48. The size of the pattern is $57 − $48 = $9. The price target for the ensuing downtrend equals the size of the head and shoulders pattern and is measured from the neckline: $48 − $9 = $39.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:49

Which of the following would a technical analyst most likely interpret as a "buy" signal?
A)
10-day moving average crosses above a 60-day moving average.
B)
20-day moving average crosses below a 100-day moving average.
C)
30-day moving average crosses above a 5-day moving average.



When using moving averages to generate trading signals, a "golden cross" of a shorter-term average above a longer-term average is a buy signal, while a "dead cross" under the longer-term average is a sell signal.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:49

Which of the following would a technical analyst most likely interpret as a "sell" signal?
A)
%K line crosses below the %D line.
B)
Signal line crosses below the MACD line.
C)
Rate of change oscillator begins decreasing.



The %K and %D lines refer to stochastic oscillators. The %K line is calculated based on the highest and lowest prices reached in a selected number of days, and the %D line is a moving average of the %K line. Used as trading signals, crossovers of the %K line above the %D line are buy signals and crossovers below the %D line are sell signals.
With a moving average convergence/divergence oscillator, a sell signal is indicated when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, which is a moving average of the MACD line. If a rate of change oscillator is used to generate signals, these would typically be indicated when the oscillator crosses above or below the level around which it fluctuates (either 0 or 100).
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:50

Bollinger bands are drawn based on the:
A)
difference between two smoothed moving averages.
B)
high and low prices in a recent period.
C)
standard deviation of recent price changes.



To use Bollinger bands, an analyst will calculate the standard deviation of prices over some number of trading days, and typically will draw the bands two standard deviations above and below a moving average for the same number of days.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:50

A value of 0.8 in the short-term Trading Index (TRIN) most likely indicates that:
A)
the market is overbought.
B)
more investors expect price decreases than increases in the short term.
C)
trading volume is heavier in advancing issues than in declining issues.



The TRIN or Arms index is a flow of funds indicator. Values less than one indicate more trading volume in advancing stocks than in declining stocks, while values greater than one mean more volume is in declining stocks than in advancing stocks.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:50

Closing prices for a commodity were 21.4 on Monday, 22.2 on Tuesday, 21.8 on Wednesday, 22.4 on Thursday, and 23.2 on Friday. The five-day standard deviation is 0.7 and the 30-day standard deviation is 1.0. On Friday, five-day Bollinger bands using two standard deviations are closest to:
A)
24.6 and 21.8.
B)
23.6 and 20.8.
C)
24.2 and 20.2.



Bollinger bands are drawn a chosen number of standard deviations above and below a moving average, where the moving average and the standard deviation are calculated using the same number of periods. The 5-day moving average is (21.4 + 22.2 + 21.8 + 22.4 + 23.2) / 5 = 22.2. Using two 5-day standard deviations, the upper band on Friday is 22.2 + 2(0.7) = 23.6 and the lower band is 22.2 − 2(0.7) = 20.8.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:51

A technical analyst who identifies a decennial pattern and a Kondratieff wave most likely:
A)
believes market prices move in cycles.
B)
is analyzing a daily or intraday price chart.
C)
associates these phenomena with U.S. presidential elections.



The decennial pattern and the Kondratieff wave are cycles of ten and 54 years, respectively. A technical analyst would be most likely to use these cycles to interpret long-term charts of monthly or annual data. Presidential elections in the United States are a possible explanation for a four-year cycle.
作者: torontoanalyst    时间: 2012-3-22 16:51

An Elliott wave theorist who forecasts prices based on Fibonacci ratios is most likely to predict that a corrective wave will be:
A)
four-ninths the size of the impulse wave.
B)
six-elevenths the size of the impulse wave.
C)
five-eighths the size of the impulse wave.



The sequence of Fibonacci numbers is 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13... . Five-eighths is a Fibonacci ratio.
作者: terpsichorefan    时间: 2013-3-20 02:07

thanks for sharing




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