1、A conditional expectation involves:

A)   determining the expected joint probability.

B)   calculating the conditional variance.

C)   refining a forecast because of the occurrence of some other event.

D)   estimating the skewness.

2、An analyst announces that an increase in the discount rate next quarter will double her earnings forecast for a firm. This is an example of a:

A)   joint probability.

B)   conditional expectation.

C)   use of Bayes' formula

D)   use of counting rules.

答案和详解如下：

1、A conditional expectation involves:

A)   determining the expected joint probability.

B)   calculating the conditional variance.

C)   refining a forecast because of the occurrence of some other event.

D)   estimating the skewness.

The correct answer was C)    

Conditional expected values are contingent upon the occurrence of some other event. The expectation changes as new information is revealed.

2、An analyst announces that an increase in the discount rate next quarter will double her earnings forecast for a firm. This is an example of a:

A)   joint probability.

B)   conditional expectation.

C)   use of Bayes' formula

D)   use of counting rules.

The correct answer was B)

This is a conditional expectation. The analyst indicates how an expected value will change given another event.