标题: base rate neglect 2012 quicksheet error [打印本页] 作者: NakedPuts 时间: 2013-4-20 04:09 标题: base rate neglect 2012 quicksheet error
we want to work out P(A|B)=P(B|A)*P(A)/P(B)
in representativeness, what is base rate neglect? is it neglect P(A|B) or neglect P(A) or P(B)
can anyone clarify? thanks作者: jcfa2011 时间: 2013-4-20 04:11
As per Bayes—– we update probabilities
P (A given B ) = P (B given A) X P( A) / P (B)— here the base rate is P (B given A) i guess作者: comp_sci_kid 时间: 2013-4-20 04:13
then you agree schweser quick sheet is wrong? but people usally under-estimate the probability of P(B given A) or over-estimate in base rate neglect?作者: Mechanic 时间: 2013-4-20 04:17
according to you, it is P(A)?作者: Matori 时间: 2013-4-20 04:18
Yes. Thanks for pointing out my typo ( i have corrected it now.)
Igoring prior means ignoring P(A)作者: studyn 时间: 2013-4-20 04:20
Yes. Thanks for pointing out my typo ( i have corrected it now.)
Igoring prior means ignoring P(A)
