标题: Leading Economic Indicators [打印本页] 作者: mdfb79 时间: 2013-5-7 20:31 标题: Leading Economic Indicators
Hi all – cfa book 3, chapter 18, question 14.
It gives info on a few leading indicators for three periods (which are strengthening) then it gives the overall index value, which is 111 – 115 – 116. The question asks what is likely to happen with the economy in coming months. I said it will expand but at a slower pace (because the rate of increase of the overall index is slowing). the answer just said it will continue growing, and focused on the individual constituents.
So I wanted to check I’m interpreting the index correctly? What would you guys have answered?
Cheers!作者: suyash1989 时间: 2013-5-7 20:35
The conclusion could be premature . with only 3 months of data its hard to say growth is slowing . . The July number could be temporarily higher than average. But the August number is still verty healthy growth .
For example the Business capital goods growth number for August is actually below the July number , but its a month-on-month growth number , in absolute terms it is still healthy , i.e. that side of the economy is growing in a healthy way
But I am not sure the answer you gave is incorrect作者: JoeyDVivre 时间: 2013-5-7 20:39
If that part of the economy was weakening (eg business capital goods) would the reading in the LEI be negative? or would it just be lower than the previous one.作者: KungFuPanda 时间: 2013-5-7 20:43
