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标题: Reading 23: Capital Market Expectations-LOS p [打印本页]

作者: tycoon    时间: 2008-9-12 15:33     标题: 2008] Session 6-Reading 23: Capital Market Expectations-LOS p

 CFA Institute Area 6: Economics
Session 6: Economic Concepts for Asset Valuation in Portfolio Management
Reading 23: Capital Market Expectations
LOS p: Identify and interpret the major approaches to forecasting exchange rates.

作者: tycoon    时间: 2008-9-12 15:33

Which of the following statements regarding the relationship between a domestic currency value and interest rates is most accurate?

A)An increase in short-term interest rates increases the value of the domestic currency.
B)An increase in short-term interest rates decreases the value of the domestic currency.
C)
An increase in short-term interest rates may increase or decrease the value of the domestic currency.
D)Interest rates are independent of the value of the domestic currency.


Answer and Explanation

Higher interest rates generally attract capital and increase the domestic currency value. At some level though, higher interest rates will result in lower currency values because the high rates may stifle an economy and make it less attractive to invest there.


作者: tycoon    时间: 2008-9-12 15:34

Suppose the U.S. has a persistent current account deficit. Which of the following approaches to forecasting currencies best explains why the U.S. dollar will be strong during this time period?

A)The PPP.
B)The relative economic strength approach.
C)The capital flows approach.
D)
The savings-investment imbalances approach.


Answer and Explanation

The savings-investment imbalances approach begins by stating that a savings deficit exists when investment is greater than domestic savings. To compensate for a savings deficit, a countrys currency must increase in value and stay strong to attract and keep foreign capital. At the same time the country will have a current account deficit where exports are less than imports. Although a current account deficit would normally indicate that the currency would weaken, the currency must stay strong to attract foreign capital.


作者: tycoon    时间: 2008-9-12 15:34

Which of the following approaches to forecasting currencies states that long-term investors will affect the values of currencies?

A)The PPP.
B)The relative economic strength approach.
C)
The capital flows approach.
D)The savings-investment imbalances approach.


Answer and Explanation

The capital flows approach states that long-term capital flows will flow to where the best opportunities are, thus increasing that countrys currency value.


作者: tycoon    时间: 2008-9-12 15:35

The savings-investment imbalances approach would most likely project a strong domestic currency during which phase of the economy?

A)Late recession.
B)Slowdown.
C)
Early expansion.
D)Early recession.


Answer and Explanation

A savings deficit exists when investment is greater than domestic savings. To compensate for a savings deficit, a countrys currency must increase in value and stay strong to attract and keep foreign capital. This scenario typically occurs during an economic expansion when businesses are optimistic and use their savings to make investments. Eventually though the economy slows, investment slows, and domestic savings increase. It is at this point that the currency will decline in value.


作者: zhouyp1982    时间: 2009-5-11 20:42

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