标题: Reading 8: Frame Dependence: The Second Theme -LOS a [打印本页]
作者: cfaedu 时间: 2008-9-16 17:17
Jill Davis tells her broker that she does not want to sell her stocks that are below the price she paid for them. She believes that if she just holds on to them a little longer they will recover, at which time she will sell them. What behavioral characteristic does Davis have as the basis for her decision making?
Answer and Explanation
Davis uses loss aversion as the basis for her decision making. She holds on to stocks that are down from the purchase price in the hopes that they will recover. She is reluctant to accept a loss.
作者: cfaedu 时间: 2008-9-16 17:17 标题: [2008] Session 3-Reading 8: Frame Dependence: The Second Theme -LOS a
CFA Institute Area 3-5, 7, 12, 14-18: Portfolio Management
Session 3: Behavioral Finance
Reading 8: Frame Dependence: The Second Theme
LOS a: Explain how loss aversion can result in investors' willingness to hold on to deteriorating investment positions.
作者: cfaedu 时间: 2008-9-16 17:18
An investor is averse to experiencing losses. Which of the following behaviors will result from the loss aversion? It will lead to:
A) | risk-aversion behavior. |
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B) | the selling of loser stocks. |
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D) | the buying of loser stocks. |
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Answer and Explanation
If an investor is loss averse, they may become risk-seeking in order to make up their losses quickly. They would do so by investing in more risky assets that have a chance of high returns that would cover the losses.
作者: cfaedu 时间: 2008-9-16 17:18
Frank Weatherford possesses the behavioral characteristic of loss aversion and has cash he must invest. Which of the following best describes Weatherfords loss aversion? Weatherfords loss aversion will be mitigated if he monitors his portfolio:
A) | more frequently and if the stock market is rising. |
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B) | less frequently and if the stock market is falling. |
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C) | more frequently and if the stock market is falling. |
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D) | less frequently and if the stock market is rising. |
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Answer and Explanation
If an investor is loss averse, their loss aversion will be mitigated if he or she monitors the portfolio less frequently. Unfortunately, most investors monitor the portfolio on a daily basis. Loss aversion also falls if the stock market is rising. In this case, investors are more likely to buy stock and dampen their loss aversion.
作者: cfaedu 时间: 2008-9-16 17:19
Dr. Michael Minter keeps most of his money in index funds. Concerned that he is not making wise use of his assets, he consults Dorothy Klemm, managing partner of Klemm, Wise & Lowry Investments.
In his initial consultation with Klemm, Minter explains that in the past he actively managed his portfolio, buying individual stocks based on his own research and material he read in Forbes and The Wall Street Journal.
- "I focused on stocks with solid histories of sales and profit growth because those companies were likely to continue growing."
- "A number of stories by the financial columnist in my local newspaper sounded interesting, but the writers at The Journal and Forbes know more about investing."
- "A lot of the stocks I selected underperformed the market over long periods of time. I made money, but I never managed to sell when they were ahead of the market."
- "Now I have about 40% of my portfolio in bond-index funds and the rest in stock-index funds.
Klemm asks Minter about his investment goals, and the doctor replies that he has managed to build up sufficient capital to invest in a friend's computer business in about three years, and keeps that money in bonds to protect the principal. The rest of Minter's money is earmarked for building a retirement nest egg.
When questioned about his fund holdings, Minter explains that his negative experience with stock selection drove him to stress diversification. He owns a variety of stock index funds, including small-cap, mid-cap, large-cap, and broad-market funds as well as foreign funds and sector index funds. His bond funds include indexes for long-term corporates, intermediate-term corporates, long-term Treasuries, intermediate-term Treasuries, short-term Treasuries, municipals, high-yield bonds, and foreign bonds.
After her meeting with Minter, Klemm writes the doctor a letter in which she makes the following statements:
- "You may be able to increase your returns without adding too much risk by reducing the number of bond funds you hold."
- "Your overconfidence cost you money in the past. Regrets about that past overconfidence are costing you money now."
- "I think you should reduce your exposure to equities. Your current portfolio is too risky."
- "Your investment strategy was sound, but you probably just picked the wrong stocks. I use a similar strategy, and I can help you boost returns by selecting individual stocks for you."
Klemm goes on to warn Minter about trying to manage his own investments. She has been bullish on the market for several years because she thinks stocks are undervalued. Recent news about the labor markets and consumer confidence has been negative, but she still sees many good values in the market.
From her discussion with Dr. Minter, Klemm will least likely conclude that Minter is:
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C) | a victim of representativeness. |
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Answer and Explanation
Minter's current indexing strategy suggests he is, at present, a beta grazer. His assumption that financial publications offer superior advice is a symptom of frame dependence, and his assumption that stocks with solid growth histories would continue to grow is an example of a representative bias. Nothing in Minter's discussion with Klemm suggests the doctor is loss averse.
作者: cfaedu 时间: 2008-9-16 17:20
Klemm's reaction to negative economic news represents which of the following defense mechanisms? A) | The "ceteris-paribus" defense. |
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C) | The "single predictor" defense. |
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D) | The "it didn't happen yet" defense. |
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Answer and Explanation
Klemm sees the market as undervalued, and when confronted with negative economic news, she maintained faith that there were still many good values available. Basically, she is saying that the market has not yet recognized the pricing inequities. Thus, the "it didn't happen yet" defense.
Based only on the information presented above, which of Klemm's suggestions makes the least sense? A) | "You may be able to increase your returns without adding too much risk by reducing the number of bond funds you hold." |
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B) | "Your overconfidence cost you money in the past. Regrets about that past overconfidence are costing you money now." |
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C) | "Your investment strategy was sound, but you probably just picked the wrong stocks. I use a similar strategy, and I can help you boost returns by selecting individual stocks for you." |
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D) | "I think you should reduce your exposure to equities. Your current portfolio is too risky." |
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Answer and Explanation
The material presented above does not give us enough information to assess whether a 60% equity exposure is too high for Minter. We know nothing about his age or financial condition. The other statements make sense in context.
Klemm's forecast is least likely to reflect:
Answer and Explanation
Klemm's continued contention that the market is undervalued in the face of poor economic news suggests she is anchored to her old forecast and probably overconfident about her conclusions. Sticking with an earlier forecast in the face of bad news may also qualify as risk-seeking behavior. But selective recall has nothing to do with this issue.
Minter's current investment strategy is an example of: |
B) | a response to a bad forecast. |
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D) | ignorance regarding fundamental risk. |
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Answer and Explanation
Minter's strategy of setting aside funds for his friend's business in fixed-income securities, then investing the rest for retirement, is a classic example of pyramiding. While Minter was probably overconfident in the past, his current strategy suggests the opposite is true now. No bad forecast was involved, and the concept of fundamental risk is irrelevant here.
Minter's move into index funds after his experiment with stock picking can be best explained as: A) | an overreaction to his incompetence. |
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B) | use of the "ceteris-paribus" defense. |
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C) | use of the "single predictor" defense. |
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Answer and Explanation
Minter believes he made some mistakes when selecting his stocks. In response to the surprise -- that his investments lagged the market -- he appears to have overcompensated, lapsing into an extremely passive and overdiversified portfolio. Anchoring reflects a tendency to stick with an earlier forecast or plan even in the face of information that suggests the forecast or plan was not wise. Minter completely changed his strategy, so there was no anchoring. Neither of the defense mechanisms provided here is relevant.
作者: miguelliu 时间: 2009-4-23 07:18
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作者: pundit 时间: 2009-4-23 09:38
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