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标题: Level 2 官方联系题P-value的问题求助 [打印本页]

作者: ww07ty 时间: 2014-5-15 23:03 标题: Level 2 官方联系题P-value的问题求助

本帖最后由 ww07ty 于 2014-5-15 23:06 编辑

Exhibit 1

Garfield’s First Regression Model

Summary Output

Regression of HighTech Returns on NASDAQ Index Returns, 2005–2009

Regression Statistics
Multiple R	0.737399823
R-squared	0.543758499
Standard error of estimate
Observations	60

ANOVA	Degrees of Freedom (DF)	Sum of Squares (SS)	Mean Square (MS)
Regression	1	0.214743645	0.214743645
Residual	58	0.180181024	0.003106569
Total	59	0.394924669

	Coefficient	Standard Error	p-value
Intercept	0.001795002	0.007209589	0.804260285
NASDAQ return	1.086005661	0.130620835	0.000000000

Garfield presents the regression results to the investment committee with the following three conclusions:

1.
The regression intercept is statistically significant.

2.
The model explains more than half of the variation in HighTech’s returns.

3.
The NASDAQ index return and the HighTech return are positively correlated.

Which of Garfield’s conclusions to the investment committee about the findings from his first model (Exhibit 1) is least likely correct? Conclusion:

The p-value of 0.80 for the intercept implies that there is about an 80% chance that the true value of the intercept is not significantly different from zero. Thus, Conclusion 1 is incorrect.

求助：官方给的答案自己没看明白，一直没搞懂P value是什么意思还有为什么0.8就not significantly from zero呢希望大家帮帮我

谢了

作者: adjani.zhang 时间: 2014-5-16 10:05

回复 1# ww07ty

你就死记住P-value越小越significate

作者: ww07ty 时间: 2014-5-16 20:07

回复 2# adjani.zhang
哈哈谢谢小于0.25算下吗有标准没~

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