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标题: Behavioral Finance - Reading 12: The Folly of Forecasting: [打印本页]

作者: mayanfang1    时间: 2009-1-19 15:50     标题: [2009] Session 3: Behavioral Finance - Reading 12: The Folly of Forecasting:

Q1. According to behavioral finance, investors continue to depend on forecasts even when previous forecasts have been inaccurate. Which of the following behavioral finance concepts is most closely related to this behavior?

A)   Overconfidence.

B)   Anchoring.

C)   Cognitive dissonance.

Q2. Paula Goodyear has been investing her own funds for the past three years. As part of her strategy, she listens to economic and market experts every morning on her favorite financial news show. Lately however, the forecasts provided by the experts have been incorrect. According to behavioral finance, which of the following is her most likely future behavior? Goodyear will:

A)   change investment strategies.

B)   keep using the experts’ forecasts.

C)   reallocate to safer assets to avoid uncertainty.

Q3. According to behavioral finance, investors continue to depend on forecasts even when previous forecasts have been inaccurate. Which of the following best explains this, from a behavioral finance viewpoint?

A)   Investors recognize that some imperfections exist in forecasts, but that they still provide some value.

B)   Investors feel a need to justify their decision.

C)   The forecasts are validated by the media.


作者: mayanfang1    时间: 2009-1-19 15:50

 

答案和详解如下:

Q1. According to behavioral finance, investors continue to depend on forecasts even when previous forecasts have been inaccurate. Which of the following behavioral finance concepts is most closely related to this behavior?

A)   Overconfidence.

B)   Anchoring.

C)   Cognitive dissonance.

Correct answer is B)

According to behavioral finance, investors will continue to depend on forecasts even when the forecasts have been inaccurate because they need an expert to justify a decision they have made. This is related to anchoring because when faced with uncertainty, investors will grab hold of something for security.

Q2. Paula Goodyear has been investing her own funds for the past three years. As part of her strategy, she listens to economic and market experts every morning on her favorite financial news show. Lately however, the forecasts provided by the experts have been incorrect. According to behavioral finance, which of the following is her most likely future behavior? Goodyear will:

A)   change investment strategies.

B)   keep using the experts’ forecasts.

C)   reallocate to safer assets to avoid uncertainty.

Correct answer is B)

According to behavioral finance, investors will continue to depend on forecasts even when they have been inaccurate because they need an expert to justify a decision they have made. So Goodyear will continue to depend on the experts’ forecasts. Although there is an element of truth in some of the other responses, they are not the best description of her future behavior, according to behavioral finance.

Q3. According to behavioral finance, investors continue to depend on forecasts even when previous forecasts have been inaccurate. Which of the following best explains this, from a behavioral finance viewpoint?

A)   Investors recognize that some imperfections exist in forecasts, but that they still provide some value.

B)   Investors feel a need to justify their decision.

C)   The forecasts are validated by the media.

Correct answer is B)

According to behavioral finance, investors continue to depend on forecasts even when they have been inaccurate because they need an expert to justify a decision they have made. Although there is an element of truth in some of the other responses, they are not the best explanation in this case, according to behavioral finance.

 


作者: miguelliu    时间: 2009-4-23 06:47

 thx
作者: pundit    时间: 2009-4-23 10:01

a
作者: zhouyp1982    时间: 2009-5-3 17:05

 r
作者: gracecfa    时间: 2009-5-22 15:24

b
作者: delta_leaf    时间: 2009-5-23 14:36     标题: 回复:(mayanfang1)[2009] Session 3: Behavioral F...

 thx
作者: sszzyyll    时间: 2009-5-27 14:47

 d
作者: rc2008    时间: 2009-5-30 11:26

d
作者: szg333    时间: 2009-8-27 22:06

d
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3
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作者: leeyaoxee    时间: 2010-4-26 07:39     标题: 回复:(mayanfang1)[2009] Session 3: Behavioral F...

Thanks.
作者: 思霖    时间: 2010-9-26 15:45

Thank you!


作者: happy_zhh    时间: 2010-11-4 00:23

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作者: deqiang    时间: 2011-5-30 22:42

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