各位高人,先礼过去了:
08年2级 Practice 1 Exam2 Morning 14题...页数P86, 实在是困扰我多日。。。我看解答中曾经提及Terminal Value用的Required Return 是0.08or8%,这个数字怎么出来的? 而后,解答中算整个的DDM时候,Required Return又变成了Capm计算出7.2%(也就是13题答案)。。按照我现在的理解程度,我认为那个8%是否是由题目中那个回归模型算出的(我按照这个模型,算出的Required Return是7.9%。。。约等于8%? 考试中误差能大到0.1%么)。。。。。。 实在不明白那个答案什么意思。。多谢各位高人指正。
以下是题目的原解: 请参阅,谢谢
The value of the stock in early 2008 is the present value of the future dividends. After 2010, dividends are
expected to grow at the rate of 4%. The dividend that begins the constantly growing perpetuity is $2.63 × 1.04
= $2.74. The appropriate discount rate is the cost of equity of 7.2% from Question 13. Note that for the third
cash flow, we add the third dividend ($2.63) to the present value of the constantly growing perpetuity that
begins in the fourth year = $2.74 / (0.08 – 0.04) = $68.50.(就是这个8%,怎么得出的?) This is valid since they both occur at the same point
in time (i.e., at the end of the third year). Using a financial calculator we can estimate the value of one share
of O’Connor stock as follows:
CFO = 0; C01 = $2.13; C02 = $2.36; C03 = $2.63 + $68.50 = $71.13; I = 7.2 (这里又用13题的答案了); CPT → NPV = $61.78
(Study Session 12, LOS 46.h)
楼主复习得好快啊~帮楼主看了下那道题 还没下载到参考答案:(所以就根据自己的想法算了一下
1,楼主注意题目13和14的题干表述,都写了closest to...所以有0.1%的误差都算正常,而且我算第一题的时候根据CAPM得到的答案是7.16%,因为没有答案解释,我猜就是约等于7.2%了。
2,14题要求你用DDM做,那么肯定是根据那个回归模型了,这点LZ想法应该是正确的,我算出来是:Ri=0.0062+1.04*0.07+epsilon t. 即答案是7.9%+误差项,这样就更有可能得到一个近似值了,用8%应该无可厚非。
3,CAPM算出来的required return on equity,是从2010年往2008年初做贴现的那个r值,而8%这个是expected return,也就是基点在2010年,从此做一个未来的Expectation,并假设dividend增长率是4%,所以第四项出现了分母是r-g的gordon growth model
因为没有标准解答,都是按照自己思路来考虑的,希望是对的~~~:)我也要抓紧复习啦~~
ding
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