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发表于 2012-3-31 15:30
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Carol Jenkins, CFA, works as a stock analyst for Cape Cod Partners, a money-management firm that handles private accounts for high net worth clients. Jenkins’ assignment is to find attractively valued stocks for client portfolios.
Jenkins believes that recent weakness in the technology sector presents an attractive opportunity. She is looking at Massive Tech, the market leader in chipsets for laptop computers, and Mouse & Associates, a tiny software developer specializing in data-storage programs. Jenkins is considering the companies’ relative values in a number of ways. Statistics for Massive and Mouse are provided below: | Massive Tech | Mouse & Associates | Stock price | $65 | $12 | Trailing earnings | $4,300 | $3.15 | Market capitalization | $130,000 | $84 | Assets | $16,250 | $7.0 | Equity | $12,000 | $5.5 | Operating margin | 49% | 54% | Net margin | 12% | 22% | Depreciation | $3,500 | $6 | Amortization | $5,675 | $1.5 | Fixed investment plus borrowing | $4,200 | $0.3 | Dividends | $3 | $0.02 | Shares outstanding | 2,000 | 7 |
* All figures except stock price, dividends, and percentages are in millions.
In most cases, Jenkins values her stocks relative to a basket of stocks in the same industry in order to avoid significant fundamental differences between companies of different types. However, her picks made based on price/earnings ratios are not doing well against the market. She fears the stocks she selects are not as cheap as she originally thought, relative to her benchmark.
Jenkins also wants to improve Cape Cod’s selection of software stocks. To widen the field beyond the companies she currently follows, Jenkins wants to include Canadian software stocks in Cape Cod’s research universe. Differences in accounting methodologies are not a concern, but Jenkins is still concerned about the difficulty of valuing the different stocks.
Jenkins has assembled the following data about Canadian software companies:- Most are very small.
- Most carry little debt, but about 20% are heavily leveraged.
- These companies are more likely to be unprofitable compared to U.S. companies.
- Few pay dividends, as is the case in the U.S.
- Many of the companies are government-subsidized, which leads to drastic differences in the level of operating expenses.
Which of the following explanations is least likely to explain why Jenkins’ stock picks underperform? A)
| She is using the mean rather than the median valuation as a benchmark. |
| B)
| Many stocks in the benchmark group are mispriced. |
| C)
| Large stocks have an outsized effect on the benchmark data. |
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Capitalization weights are not an issue unless the benchmark is a cap-weighted index. Jenkins is using a basket of stocks in the same industry, which can be assumed to be a simple arithmetic average. Average valuations reflect outliers; medians do not. P/Es can get very high, but can never fall below zero. As such, the outliers are going to trend high, and the median is likely to be considerably lower than the mean. A stock that looks cheap relative to the mean may look expensive relative to the median. Stocks of different sizes often have different average or median valuations. Mispricing of stocks in the benchmark is always a risk. (Study Session 12, LOS 44.k)
If she wants to compare Canadian software companies to U.S. software companies, it would be most appropriate for Jenkins to value the companies using the: | B)
| enterprise value/EBITDA ratio. |
| |
Accounting issues are not relevant to this discussion. As such, we must consider the other characteristics of the market to choose the best method. The P/E ratio is limited in value because many of the companies do not make money. The P/S ratio doesn’t work well when the companies have different cost structures, and the measure does not reflect differences in profit margins. EBITDA is less likely to be negative than earnings, but it will fall prey to differences in cost structure just as the P/E and P/S ratios will. Like EBITDA, book value is often positive even when profits are negative. The price/book ratio is best for valuing companies with small amounts of fixed assets, like software makers. In addition, the fact that most of the companies are small eliminates one of the P/B ratio’s weaknesses that it can be misleading when compared firms have significantly different asset sizes. (Study Session 12, LOS 44.k)
Which valuation ratio is least appropriate for comparing Massive and Mouse? A)
| Price/book because Massive is larger than Mouse. |
| B)
| Enterprise value/EBITDA because Massive and Mouse have very different debt levels. |
| C)
| Price/cash flow because cash flows for small companies can be extremely volatile. |
|
The P/B ratio’s can be misleading when used to compare companies with vastly different asset bases. A large semiconductor company is likely to have lots of fixed assets, while a tiny software company may have very few assets. The P/CF ratio tends to be more stable than the P/E ratio. The P/E ratio is useless for considering companies that lose money, but that does not mean the measure has no value when earnings are positive. The EV/EBITDA ratio is effective at comparing stocks with different degrees of financial leverage. (Study Session 12, LOS 44.k)
Mouse & Associates is cheaper than Massive Tech as measured by: A)
| the price/sales ratio and the dividend yield. |
| B)
| the price/sales ratio and the price/earnings ratio. |
| C)
| the earnings yield but not the price/book. |
|
To calculate the P/E, divide the market capitalization by the earnings. Lower is cheaper.
To calculate the P/B, divide the market capitalization by the equity. Lower is cheaper.
To calculate the P/S, determine sales by dividing the earnings by the net margin. Then divide the market capitalization by the sales. Lower is cheaper.
To calculate the earnings yield, divide the earnings by the market capitalization. Higher is cheaper.
To calculate the dividend yield, divide the dividends by the price. Higher is cheaper.
| Massive Tech | Mouse & Associates | P/E | 30.23 | 26.67 | P/B | 10.83 | 15.27 | P/S | 3.63 | 5.87 | Earnings yield | 3.31% | 3.75% | Dividend yield | 4.62% | 0.17% |
(Study Session 12, LOS 44.d)
The price/cash flow ratio of Massive Tech, where cash flow is defined as earnings plus noncash charges, is closest to:
Cash flow = net income plus depreciation plus amortization = ($4,300 + 3,500 + 5,675) = $13,475 million.
P/CF = market capitalization/cash flow = ($130,000/13,475) = 9.65. (Study Session 12, LOS 44.d)
If Jenkins wants to compare foreign stocks to U.S. stocks and is concerned about differences in accounting, she should start with the:
Of all the price ratios, the price/free cash flow to equity ratio is the least affected by international accounting differences. However, the dividend yield is not affected by such accounting differences at all, and represents a good starting point. Residual-income models and price/book ratios are very sensitive to accounting issues. (Study Session 12, LOS 44.p) |
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