LOS h: Calculate a foreign currency risk premium and explain a foreign currency risk premium in terms of interest rate differentials and forward rates.
Steven Retting lives in Canada and is considering investing in a Canadian bond yielding 6% or a U.S. bond yielding 5%. Retting expects the Canadian dollar to appreciate by 3% over the next year.
What is the foreign currency risk premium on the U.S. dollar?
The interest rate differential is 1% (Canada – U.S.). We expect the Canadian dollar to appreciate by 3% relative to the U.S. dollar therefore the U.S. dollar will depreciate by 3%. The foreign currency risk premium (FCRP) is the expected exchange rate movement minus the interest rate differential between the domestic currency and the foreign currency. FCRP = ?3% ? 1% = ?4%.
What will be the Canadian currency returns on the U.S. bond?
Since Retting lives in Canada, the Canadian rate is the domestic rate. The interest rate differential is 1% (Canada ? U.S.). The foreign currency risk premium (FCRP) is ?3% ? 1% = ?4%. The domestic currency return on the foreign U.S. bond can be calculated as the domestic Canadian interest rate plus the FCRP: 6% ? 4% = 2%. Alternatively, the domestic currency return can be calculated as the U.S. interest rate plus the expected currency depreciation: 5% ? 3% = 2%
According to the traditional model, if the Canadian currency appreciates, then Canadian industries in the long run should become:
A) |
more competitive, and there will be an economic slowdown in Canada. | |
B) |
less competitive, and there will be an economic slowdown in Canada. | |
C) |
more competitive, and there will be an economic expansion in Canada. | |
In the long run, an increase in the value of a country’s currency decreases national competitiveness. Likewise, a decrease in the value of a country’s currency increases national competitiveness in the long run. However, in the short run a decrease in the national currency causes a widening gap in the trade balance and an increase in domestic inflation. Therefore, short-run and long-run reactions to changes in currency differ.
[此贴子已经被作者于2010-4-15 15:48:02编辑过] |