Internet : Ctrip.com (CTRP.US) - "Slowdown into 2009" commission, maintained, Internet, business, guidance

yangho

Key Points:
◆       3Q top line is at the low end of company guidance. Hotel booking business saw stagnant volumes and flat commission. The air ticketing business saw a sharp decline in commission per ticket due to ticket price cuts, but volume growth remained pretty strong. Package tours maintained healthy growth.
◆       4Q could be the worst quarter in growth rate terms. 2009 will still be slow but may pick up a little due to the recovery of commission per ticker due to oil price cuts.
◆       The long term consolidating story is still convincing, and this industry downturn may bring chance to gain more market share.
◆       Our 2008 EPS forecast is US$0.96 and our 2009 forecast is US$1.09. Our target price is US$21.74, representing 20x 2009 forward looking P/E. Maintain HOLD.
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