[20081125]行业研究*台湾主板生产企业4季度消化存活开工率降低，预计2009年桌面电脑

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台湾主板生产商显示11月电脑主板需求逐步走弱，主板生产商正在清理存货降低开工率，预计4季度主板产量季度环比下滑15%，另外我们认为IT主板行业09年前景要比2001年那波周期还要差，2009年整个行业没有新技术启动桌面电脑需求，美国IT团队预计2009年台式电脑销量同比下滑7%，可以推导出主板销量可能同比下滑10%。目前台湾主板生产商唯一的亮点是资产负债表比较强劲。
November demand weak across all different regions
Our recent checks with motherboard (MB) makers indicate that November MB demand is weakening across different regions. MB makers seem to be concerned about credit line issues for distributors in Eastern Europe and euro fluctuation in Western Europe. MB makers we spoke with were cutting orders to component suppliers (including all semi components such as chipsets, analog ICs and PCBs, connectors) to clean their component inventories, indicating MB makers have little expectation for the peak 4Q season. MB makers have also lowered their production run rate substantially in 4Q. We expect 4Q MB shipment volume to drop more than 15% qoq.
'09 outlook still negative; likely worse than last downturn in '01
Intel recently launched the 2-in-1 i7 CPUs (Nehalem platform) with a price substantially higher than current CPU prices. In addition, the 3-in-1 (CPU, DRAM controller, and graphics) Nehalem CPU may not be launched until late 4Q09 or 1Q10, according to the MB makers we spoke with, so there could be no real new technology for desktop (DT)/MB to trigger demand in 2009. Our US PC team expects 2009 DT shipment volume to drop 7%. We think clone MB shipment volume may drop more than 10% in 2009.
Is AIO(all-in-one) PC a harbor for DT/PC?
ASUSTeK again leads the market in launching low price AIO DT PCs, after it led the market launching its Eee PCs in October 2007. ASUSTeK’s AIO “Eee Top” is far cheaper than Apple’s AIO “iMac” and HP’s AIO “IQ.” Moreover, ASUSTeK’s Eee Top has the built-in single touch panel with good price/performance. However, due to lack of mobility and scalability, we believe it will not be as popular as Eee PC. ASUSTeK targets shipping 5 mn units in two years, but we forecast less than 1 mn per year.
MB makers: headwinds from P&L but balance sheet is healthy
We do not recommend investors buy MB makers ASUSTeK (Neutral) or Giga- Byte (Neutral) as we believe DT/MB will continue to lose market share to NB/netbook in 2009, and the clone DT/MB market is not only losing market share to NB but also suffering from tightening credit lines for its distribution channels. However, both ASUSTeK and Giga-Byte are net cash and trade at 12-month trailing P/B of 0.9X and 0.4X, respectively, vs. 0.9X-3.6X and 0.4X-3.0X historically. Without any fundamental catalysts, we think investors may be interested in MB makers’ strong balance sheets.