返回列表 发帖

[求助]二级经济学的" expansive fiscal policy"

原版书reading14第11题 "Assume a developed market (DM) country has an expansive fiscal policy under high capital mobility conditions. Why is its currency most likely to depreciate in the long-run under an integrated Mundell- Fleming and portfolio-balance approach?”" 答案说"Expansionary fiscal policies result in currency depreciation in the long run. " 本人理解:在flexible和high capital mobility conditions下, expansive fiscal policy不是导致利率上升,资本流出,导致货币升值吗? financial account升值,current account贬值,综合来看还是升值?难道是短期升值,长期又贬值了?谢谢

在flexible和high mobility的情况下,扩张性财政政策会有两种相反的影响:
1. 政府借款;利率上升;资本流入;本币升值 (资本账户影响)
2. 促进经济;对进口商品需求增加;外币需求增加而升值,即本币贬值。(经常账户影响)

由于第一种情况占主导,所以最终还是会导致本币升值(短期)。
注意:Mundell-Fleming approach focuses on the short-term implications of fiscal policy
portfolio balance model focuses on the long-term implications of sustained fiscal policy

这是重要考点,由于Mundell Fleming model关注的是短期,短期升值;根据portfolio balance,投资者担心本国无法偿债,所以本币长期会贬值。

TOP

返回列表