To determine whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued, we need to compare the expected return (or holding period return) and the required return (from Capital Asset Pricing Model, or CAPM).
Step 1: Calculate Expected Return (Holding period return)
The formula for the (one-year) holding period return is:
HPR = (D1 + S1 – S0) / S0, where D = dividend and S = stock price.
Here, HPR = (1.50 + 39 – 35) / 35 = 15.71%
Step 2: Calculate Required Return
The formula for the required return is from the CAPM: RR = Rf + (ERM – Rf) × Beta
Here, we are given the information we need except for Beta. Remember that Beta can be calculated with: Betastock = [covS,M] / [σ2M]. Here we are given the numerator and the denominator, so the calculation is: 0.85 / 0.702 = 1.73. RR = 4.50% + (12.0 – 4.50%) × 1.73 = 17.48%.
Step 3: Determine over/under valuation
The required return is greater than the expected return, so the security is overvalued.
The amount = 17.48% ? 15.71% = 1.77%.