- UID
- 223231
- 帖子
- 520
- 主题
- 166
- 注册时间
- 2011-7-11
- 最后登录
- 2013-8-21
|
28#
发表于 2012-4-2 14:01
| 只看该作者
Bill Bender is a currency trader for International Investing Inc. International’s portfolio managers specialize in finding attractive international investments for U.S. investors. Bender reviews these transactions and determines whether to hedge away some of the risk, then takes the appropriate hedging action.
Tonight he will speak to several hundred students taking investment classes at a local college, discussing strategies for hedging currency risk. While eating lunch, he prepares the following talking points:- Options can be used to both directly and indirectly hedge currency risk. Futures can do the same.
- Direct hedging of the principal with futures allows investors to hedge away risk, but not to participate in any currency gains.
- A minimum-variance hedge is better than a simple hedge because it accounts for translation risk.
- To avoid basis risk, investors should make sure their futures contracts mature at the end of the asset holding period.
The analysts were busy this morning, and upon his return from lunch, Bender had a stack of proposed trades to review.
The first transaction involves a series of long and short equity trades on a variety of foreign markets. While the trades generally wash out market risk, they make no allowance for currency fluctuations. The profit margin on such strategies can be low, so Bender must keep costs to a minimum. Bender creates a strategy to hedge away much of the risk.
Another analyst wants to take long positions in a variety of European small-cap companies. While the analyst is confident that the stocks will deliver returns superior to other European small-caps, he is concerned that decreases in the euro will erode the returns for U.S. investors. The analyst has provided Bender with the following data:- Portfolio value: €15 million.
- Expected 12-month return: 26%.
- Current exchange rate: $1.56 per euro.
- Expected exchange rate in 12 months: $1.51 per euro.
- Euro put premium: $0.065.
- Delta: -0.58.
To compensate for this problem, Bender decides to use a currency delta hedge.
Bender then reviews another proposed transaction, the purchase of $10 million dollars of municipal-bond issue in Transylvania. The bonds pay 12 percent because the country’s credit rating is fairly weak. But the Transylvania analyst believes a recent regime change should stabilize the government, and the new leaders will take every precaution needed not to default on the bonds. Bender likes the investment, but has no idea what effect the recent coup is likely to have on Trannsylvanian currency, so he decides to fully hedge the principal and returns for the first year of the investment.
One analyst, Helen Carr, has asked for Bender’s assistance with a matter not related to currency hedging. Carr is not satisfied with the returns of her emerging-markets mutual fund. Her returns are not well correlated with the returns of the Europe, Australia, Far East Index.
Bender meets with Carr to discuss the benefits of emerging-market investments in general. Carr said it took several years to convince International Investments of the benefits of emerging-market investing, allowing that company executives put forth some compelling arguments for keeping out of such markets.
After Bender and Carr get to the specifics about how Carr can boost her returns, Bender suggests that she increase her exposure to small-cap emerging-market stocks. He says the purchase of such stocks will have several effects:- Increasing the portfolio’s return potential without sacrificing liquidity relative to large-cap emerging-markets stocks.
- Decreasing the portfolio’s correlation with the Europe, Australia, Far East Index.
- Making it easier to boost sector diversification relative to large-cap emerging-markets stocks.
- Increasing the research complexity relative to large-cap emerging-markets stocks.
Assuming currency fluctuation and return expectations prove accurate and the price of a put option rises by $0.036 over the next 12 months, how many put options must Bender buy or sell a year from now to hedge the position? A)
| Buy 6,724,138 options. |
| B)
| Sell 5,028,736 options. |
| |
To create the currency delta hedge, Bender must purchase the following put options: −1 / delta × portfolio value = 25,862,069 puts. Then we must calculate how many options to buy or sell a year from now. New delta = change in put option value / change in exchange rate = ($0.036) / (−$0.05) = −0.72. −1 / delta × portfolio value = number of options needed to hedge. −1 / −0.72 × €15,000,000 × 1.26 = 26,250,000 puts, or 387,931 more than the current holdings. (Study Session 14, LOS 35.g)
Which of Bender’s statements about small-cap emerging-markets stocks is least accurate? That they will: A)
| decrease the portfolio’s correlation with the Europe, Australia, Far East Index. |
| B)
| make it easier to boost sector diversification relative to large-cap emerging-markets stocks. |
| C)
| increase the portfolio’s return potential without sacrificing liquidity relative to large-cap emerging-markets stocks. |
|
Small-cap emerging-markets stocks are likely to boost returns, but they are also considerably less liquid than large-cap emerging-markets stocks. Both remaining statements are accurate. (Study Session 12, LOS 30.b)
To accomplish his goals regarding the Trannsylvania investment, Bender should: A)
| sell $10 million worth of futures contracts. |
| B)
| buy $11.2 million worth of futures contracts. |
| C)
| sell $11.2 million worth of futures contracts. |
|
To hedge currency risk on a foreign bond purchase, a trader could sell currency futures. In this case, a $10 million investment should be worth $11.2 million over a year. To fully hedge the principal and returns, Bender must sell futures contracts equal to the value of the principal plus the interest return, or $11.2 million. (Study Session 14, LOS 35.a)
Which of the following arguments against investing in emerging markets is least convincing? A)
| Over most of the last 20 years, annualized returns for emerging markets lagged those of U.S. investments. |
| B)
| Over time, the correlation of emerging markets and that of developed markets is likely to increase. |
| C)
| Emerging-markets stocks tend to lower returns and boost risk for global portfolios during bull markets in U.S. stocks. |
|
Emerging-markets stocks tend to lower returns and add risk during U.S. bear markets – they tend to boost returns in bull markets. The other two concerns are legitimate. (Study Session 12, LOS 30.b)
Which of Bender’s talking points is least accurate? A)
| Options can be used to both directly and indirectly hedge currency risk. Futures can do the same. |
| B)
| A minimum-variance hedge is better than a simple hedge because it accounts for translation risk. |
| C)
| Direct hedging of the principal with futures allows investors to hedge away risk, but not to participate in any currency gains. |
|
Simple hedges account for translation risk, while a minimum-variance hedge also addresses economic risk. The other statements are accurate. (Study Session 14, LOS 35.b)
To hedge away the basis risk for the long-short equity investment, Bender’s best option is a strategy: A)
| starting with options on the relevant foreign currencies. |
| B)
| starting with a regression of U.S. returns of foreign currency futures. |
| C)
| hedging the principal. |
|
To correctly perform a cross-hedge, Bender should start with regression analysis of currency returns. A hedge of the principal won’t address the cross-currency issues. Put options may be an effective hedge, but purchasing that portfolio insurance requires up-front costs. If minimizing costs is key, options are not the answer. (Study Session 14, LOS 35.c) |
|