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5#
发表于 2013-4-28 12:49
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bchadwick, I think I am still in the middle of Financial Enlightenment I remember how my personal “investing style” (if you could call it that) has evolved over years since 1999, when I started paying attention to the stock market because all my friends were. Before that, I was dimly aware that stocks existed and that I put money in 401-K in stocks and bonds in funds that had outperformed in the past 5 years. One of them happened to be Fidelity Contrafund so even this follow-the-performance decision didn’t turn out to be that bad. During 1999, everyone was “investing”, so I bought a few tech stocks that my friends and coworkers (who didn’t know anything either) sunk their money into - like CSCO at 54, INTC at 75, JDSU at 88 - remember those? Then in the 2001-2003 recession I wised up a little bit, heard of something called the P/E ratio, and bought CVX and HSY (and HD, which then languished forever thanks to Bob Nardelli.) Looking back, luck played a major part since value was on sale. (Also, CHK, despite its CEO’s shenanigans, went from 5.41 to 63 - I got out at 39). For the last 5 years, I have been reading books such as the Intelligent Investor and listening to Warren Buffett on CNBC, so I wanted to see for myself if CFA can actually help.
One thing I am beginning to realize is what an enormous amount of work it is to analyze companies, even if you have access to ValueLine and SEC 10-K/proxy statements. Almsot as an experiment, I’ve been dividing my past and present 401-K/IRA money into individual stocks that I pick, and broard market indices (like Schwab SCHB/SCHD and Vanguard VTI) and so far, in the last 3 years, the individual stocks have beaten the indices by 2% or so. Which is pathetic considering I am not getting paid for this research (except the intellectual satisfaction.) But it’s fun, so I’d like to memorize at least the 1700 ValueLine stocks to the point where I can watch Jim Cramer’s lightning round and have some informed opinion on the stocks that his listeners ask him about. I already know I have better judgment than him I’d never advocate jumping in and out as quickly as he does.
Sorry for the long-winded post, to summarize, CFA has opened my eyes to how many facets there are to company valuation, from macro/top-down industry analysis to comparable multiples to liquidation value and so on, and then to guessing the intrinsic value of the stock, considering leverage and buybacks/dilution etc. |
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