1．Analysts attempting to compensate for instability in the minimum-variance frontier will find which of the following strategies least effective? A) Gathering more accurate historical data. B) Eliminating short sales. C) Reducing the frequency of portfolio rebalancing. D) Improving the accuracy of their forecasting models. The correct answer was A) A key problem with the minimum-variance frontier is the difficulty of forecasting statistical inputs. As such, improving the forecasting model is useful. Constraining portfolio weights through the elimination of short sales and avoiding rebalancing until significant changes occur in the efficient frontier can be effective strategies for limiting instability. However, even the best historical data is often of limited use in forecasting future values. Gathering more accurate historical data would help, compensate for instability, but not as much as the other three options. 2．Martz & Withers Enterprises has a beta of 1.6. We can most likely assume that: A) calculating an adjusted beta will ease the downward pressure on the forecasted beta. B) the future beta will be less than 1.0. C) the future beta will be less than 1.6 but greater than 1.0. D) the standard error on the future beta forecast is positive. The correct answer was C) The standard error is always expected to be zero, and the beta has nothing to do with that estimate. Adjusted beta tends to move forecasts toward 1.0. In the case of Martz & Withers, adjusted beta will almost certainly be lower than the current beta. Most adjusted beta calculations are as follows: adjusted beta = 2/3 + (1/3 × historical beta). In this case, adjusted beta is 1.2. Not everyone will use the two-thirds/one-third relationship, but any adjusted-beta equation will result in a value between 1.0 and 1.6. 3．Conner Cans shares have a beta of 0.8. Assuming α1 is 40 percent, Conner’s adjusted beta is closest to: A) 0.88. B) 1.00. C) 1.12. D) 0.92. The correct answer was D) Adjusted beta = α0 + α1 × beta where α0 and α1 must sum to 1, so α0 = 60%.
Adjusted beta = 60% + 40% × 0.8 = 0.92. 4．Adjusted betas were developed in an effort to compensate for: A) inaccurate forecasts for the efficient frontier based on traditional beta. B) the weaknesses of standard deviation as a risk measurement. C) difficulties in accurately calculating the slope of the capital market line. D) traditional beta’s limitations in assessing the risk of extremely volatile stocks. The correct answer was A) Adjusted beta was developed to compensate for the beta instability problem, or the tendency of historical betas to generate inaccurate forecasts. Extreme volatility is not an issue; nor is standard deviation. | 
发表于 2008-4-14 17:52
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