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- 2011-7-11
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发表于 2011-7-11 19:48
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I have a question regarding FX Forward rates that I believe should be related to this topic. If the basis of my question is incorrect, would you please explain why? Here it goes. Consider the following FX Forward rates example:
Given the following data, what should be the 90 day forward FX rate?
spot: 1.3500 CAD/USD
CAD 90 day LIBOR: 4.5%
USD 90 day LIBOR: 3.8%
answer: FXfwd = 1.35 * (1 + (.045 * (90/365))) / (1 + (.038 * (90/360)))
OK, so first, there is a day count convention difference here. I've seen resources that list the various countries and their conventions. Actually, the yield and rates reading for CFAI is pretty good although it doesn't cover the use of 360 or 365. For an example of what I mean, have a look at Schweser vol2 E3 afternoon question 77. Here they compute the bond equivalent yield of the US Treasury Bill using a 365 day calendar while in the example above, they use 360. Go figure. But anyway, this is not my question although any good resources are welcome here.
OK, so my question really relates to the forward rate and how instinctively I would expect the CAD to strengthen against the USD due to the higher interest rate it offers. My thinking is as follows (and I borrow from the posting above that has a nice map of how the money supply affects other factors):
Canada
higher interest rate
decrease in money supply
decrease in inflation
currency appreciates
US
lower interest rate
increase in money supply
increase in inflation
currency depreciates
Now, I know that I am comparing data among the two countries (cross sectional) when I should be comparing within a country for different times (time series) but this is all I have to go by. The end result is that I believe that, if I'm correct, the CAD is getting stronger and therefore the CAD/USD should be < 1.3500 going forward. What is my misunderstanding here? |
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