The “sustained-growth” scenario is the only scenario suitable for using the two-stage method, in part because the “high-growth” scenario uses three different required rates of return.
First, we need to calculate estimated FCFE in 2006.
FCFF = NI + NCC + [Int × (1 ? tax rate)] ? FCInv ? WCInv
= 16.9 + 80 + [34 × (1 - 0.35)] – [(480 - 240) - (400 - 160) + 80] – [(55 - 70) - (50 - 50)]
= 16.9 + 80 + 22.1 – 80 – (?15)
= 54
FCFE = FCFF – [Int × (1 - tax rate)] + Net Borrowing
= 54 – [34 × (1 - .35)] + (?26.9)
= 54 – 22.1 – 26.9
= $5 million in 2006
Having calculated FCFE in 2006, we can calculate FCFE for 2007 through 2011 using the growth rates provided:
|
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
Growth in FCFE |
40.0% |
15.7% |
8.6% |
9.1% |
8.3% |
Implied level of FCFE (in millions) |
$7.0 |
$8.1 |
$8.8 |
$9.6 |
$10.4 |
Now that we know FCFE, we can discount future FCFE back to the present at the cost of equity.
In the first stage of the two-stage model, we determine the terminal value at the start of the constant growth period as follows:
Terminal Value = (10.4 × 1.06)/(0.12 - 0.06) = $183.733 million.
In the second stage, we discount FCFE for the first six years and the terminal value to the present.
Equity Value = [5.0 / (1.12)1] + [7.0 / (1.12)2] + [8.1 / (1.12)3] + [8.8 / (1.12)4] + [9.6 / (1.12)5] + [(10.4 + 183.7333) / (1.12)6]
Equity Value = 4.46 + 5.58 + 5.77 + 5.59 + 5.45 + 98.35
Equity Value = $125.20 million
(Study Session 12, LOS 42.k)