Ashley Winters, CFA, has been hired to value Goliath Communications, a company that is currently undergoing rapid growth and expansion. Ashley is an expert in the communications industry and has had extensive experience in valuing similar firms. She is convinced that a value for the equity of Goliath can be reliably obtained through the use of a three-stage free cash flow to equity (FCFE) model with declining growth in the second stage. Based on up-to-date financial statements, she has determined that the current FCFE per share is $0.90. Ashley has prepared a forecast of expected growth rates in FCFE as follows:
Stage 1: |
10.5% for years 1 through 3 |
Stage 2: |
8.5% in year 4, 6.5% in year 5, 5% in year 6 |
Stage 3: |
3% in year 7 and thereafter | Moreover, she has determined that the company has a beta of 1.8, the current risk-free rate is 3%, and the equity risk premium is 5%.
The required return and terminal value in year 6 are closest to:
|
Required return |
Terminal value in year 6 |
Based on the CAPM we can estimate a required return on equity as:
Required return = 3% + 1.8(5%) = 12%
Estimates for the future FCFE based on supplied growth rates are:
Year |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
Growth rate |
10.5% |
10.5% |
10.5% |
8.5% |
6.5% |
5% |
3% |
FCFE/share |
$0.995 |
$1.099 |
$1.214 |
$1.318 |
$1.403 |
$1.473 |
$1.518 |
R$ = 1.518/(12% - 3%) = 16.867
The per-share value Winters should assign to Goliath’s equity is closest to:
We find the value of the equity/share by discounting all future FCFE/share by the required rate of return on equity.
Using the calculator, enter CF0 = 0; C01 = 0.995; C02 = 1.099; C03 = 1.214; C04 = 1.318; C05 = 1.403; C06 = 1.473 + 16.867 = 18.34; I = 12; Compute →?NPV = 13.55. |