onelife1

I'm still not sure how this will necessarily hurt the US. It's not like China is going to march troops over here just because they have a bigger army. In fact, maybe not being the biggest dog might mean that the US will no longer be pressured into expensive international conflicts where it has no business.

Not being the biggest economy probably doesn't matter either. It's not like all the other countries will say "Sorry US, we will only trade with the biggest economy, China. We are not going to trade with you because you are only second biggest in the world". In fact, having a huge buyer of iPods, Nike shoes and GM cars might even help in the future.

Other stuff, like the US fiscal deficit, has nothing to do with the ordinal ranking of economies by size.

Unforseen

^ The military point isn't quite true.

China still has barely begun to develop infrastructure through it's western regions and just last year had an 11 day traffic jam in the east. I've toured the eastern main land and while progress has been incredible, there's still much to go. Factor in that a booming middle class means more and more infrastructure developments being required and other government support programs.

This is all relevant because a slightly larger GDP in a nation with 3-4 times as many people as the US in the midst of major infrastructure development means very little discretionary capital, which means defense spending will still lag. If i remember correctly, roughly ten nations have aircraft carriers, China is still years away from having a deploy-able carrier and no one besides the US (11) has more than 2 (in service). Not to mention that US carriers are typically at least 1/3 larger than that of their competitors. Heck, the US has decommissioned 55 carriers in it's history versus the 1 China has yet to construct. These things are massive, massive undertakings to construct and support. Currently US DoD spending is roughly 40% of the world's and six times that of China. Factor in that this gap has existed at a larger degree for decades, not to mention military experience and our possession of most high end software firms and you have a major learning curve to overcome.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Without American production the United Nations could never have won the war."
-Joseph Stalin, Tehran Conference: 1943

economicz

i don't think it really matters, but i like that they set a date after 2012...

Analti_Calte

So what? From a living standard standpoint, US will still beat China for years to come.

US passed UK more than 100 yrs ago, UK still one of the most developed country in the world.

Since we are on China, my co-worker told me a funny Chinese saying - the slimmest camel is larger than a horse.