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An investor can invest in Tunisian dinar at r = 6.25% or in Swiss francs at r = 5.15%. She is a resident of Tunisia and the current spot rate is CHF:TND 0.8105. What is the approximate one-year forward rate expressed in CHF:TND?
The approximate forward premium/discount is given by the interest rate differential. This differential is: 6.25% − 5.15% = 1.10%. Since Tunisia has higher interest rates, its currency will be at a discount in the forward market. This discount equals: 0.011 × 0.8105 = 0.0089. Since the exchange rate is quoted in CHF:TND, as a depreciating currency, it will take more TND to buy one CHF. The forward rate is thus: 0.8105 + 0.0089 = CHF:TND 0.8194. In other words, the CHF is stronger in the forward market. |
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